Dutch Gambling Tax Increase Falls Short of Revenue Expectations
Dutch Gambling Tax Increase Brings Minimal Revenue Growth
A recent joint assessment by the Ministry of Finance and the Netherlands gambling regulator has revealed that the recent rise in gambling taxes in the Netherlands has produced far less revenue than anticipated by government officials.
Modest Revenue Gains Despite Tax Rate Hikes
Starting in early 2025, the gambling tax rate was raised from 30.5% to 34.2%, with a further planned increase to 37.8% set for January 1, 2026. These increases aimed to strengthen public finances, expecting to bring in an additional 108 million euros (approximately $122 million) annually from the first hike and doubling that figure with the second increase to 216 million euros ($245 million).
However, the actual increase in gambling tax receipts was only about 2 million euros ($2.3 million) in 2025 compared to the previous year. Forecasts for 2026 predict revenues to increase by only 57 million euros ($64.6 million), significantly below the original targets. Total gambling tax income was around 1.036 billion euros ($1.174 billion) in 2025, up slightly from 1.034 billion euros ($1.172 billion) in 2024 and is projected to reach 1.091 billion euros ($1.237 billion) in 2026, once inflation and seasonal adjustments are considered.
Factors Behind the Revenue Shortfall
The assessment attributes the revenue gap mainly to a shrinking taxable base. Gambling tax is levied on gross gaming revenue — the amount wagered minus prize payouts — and this base has declined due to various simultaneous developments occurring alongside the tax increases.
Regulatory Changes Compound Tax Impact on Dutch Gambling Industry
New regulations introduced in late 2024 aimed at protecting players have imposed monthly net deposit limits, restricting the amount customers can lose without demonstrating financial capability. These limits are 300 euros ($340) for younger adults and 700 euros ($793) for players 24 and older. Additional measures include tightened advertising and sponsorship restrictions, making it difficult to isolate the effects of tax hikes from these regulatory changes.
The increased tax burden may also reduce other government revenues linked to the gambling sector. For example, Holland Casino and the Dutch Lottery, both connected with public finance, are expected to contribute fewer profits, corporation taxes, and dividends. The tax increase is estimated to cut Holland Casino’s pre-tax profit by 27 million euros ($30.6 million) in 2025, with an even greater impact in 2026. The Dutch Lottery is similarly expected to reduce funding contributions to sports and charitable causes.
Decline in Land-Based Gambling Attendance
Land-based gambling venues have faced significant challenges, with visits to arcades and Holland Casino locations decreasing by 11%, dropping from 4.6 million in the first quarter of 2025 to 4.1 million a year later. The sector struggles with rising operational costs, post-pandemic recovery pressures, and fierce competition from online gambling platforms, prompting several arcade operators to close down some venues.
Industry Challenges and Illegal Gambling Concerns
The gambling industry warns that illegal gambling may be on the rise; however, regulators find it difficult to draw conclusive links due to overlapping market changes. Overall, the findings indicate that the tax increases have failed to deliver the expected boost in revenues for the treasury.
