Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Indianapolis Colts (8-5) travel to Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks (10-3) on Sunday afternoon. Seattle is listed as a heavy favorite (Seahawks -13.5) with the total at 42.5. The context coming into this game is lopsided: Seattle’s defense has tightened up and its offense has playmakers in form, while Indianapolis is reeling after key personnel losses and a three-game skid.

Recommended Sports Betting Sites

Key Factors to Watch

• Quarterback availability: Indianapolis will be without Daniel Jones after he suffered a torn Achilles in Week 14, a loss that dramatically changes the Colts’ ceiling. Riley Leonard will be asked to start and manage — he struggled in relief recently (18-of-29 for 145 yards, 1 INT)
• Seahawks defense on a run: Seattle has surrendered just nine points across its last two games and is forcing turnovers and three-and-outs. Containing the Colts’ makeshift passing game and limiting Jonathan Taylor’s impact will be crucial.
• Run game & playmakers: Jonathan Taylor remains the Colts’ best offensive weapon and represents their primary path to sustained drives. On the other side, Zach Charbonnet and a developing run/receiver balance for the Seahawks provides Seattle with multiple scoring avenues.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: JSN has been the focal point of Seattle’s passing attack this season and ranks as one of the league leaders in receiving yards — a reliable target against an Indianapolis secondary that will have to account for him while game-planning for the run.
• Home-field environment: Lumen Field’s crowd noise and the Seahawk’s comfort at home amplify mistakes by a backup QB. A rookie/young signal-caller like Leonard is more vulnerable to sacks, false starts, and pre-snap communication breakdowns in that setting.

Why Seattle Should Win

With Jones out, the Colts lose a veteran presence who can push the ball downfield and win key late-game snaps. Seattle’s defense has been excellent lately — stopping drives, producing takeaways and keeping opponents out of the end zone. The Seahawks also possess a balanced attack that can chew clock with the run and take shots to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, forcing the Colts to defend sideline stretches and intermediate throws. Those match-up advantages, combined with home-field amplification, set Seattle up to win comfortably.

Why Indianapolis Could Keep It Close

The Colts still have Jonathan Taylor, who can control tempo and produce chunk plays that shorten the game. If the Seahawks’ offense were to sputter or if Seattle’s defensive success regresses, fatiguing the defense with long drives could keep the score tight. Additionally, Leonard has shown some mobility and playmaking upside, which can create explosive plays on the ground if Seattle overcommits to the rush.

Betting Angles & Totals

• Spread: Seattle -13.5 is large but justified by the QB injury and matchup. Expect a Seahawks offense that can run efficiently and a Colts attack that will struggle to sustain long drives.
• Total (42.5): With Jones out and the Colts likely more conservative, the game has a lean toward the UNDER if Seattle leans into ball-control and the defense keeps drives short. That said, Taylor’s ability to score and occasional quick strikes could push the total higher; this is a secondary lean.
• Player props: Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains a strong play for receptions/yards against a Colts defense that must respect the run; Zach Charbonnet should see goal-line and early-down opportunities.

Prediction Summary

Seattle’s advantage is twofold: superior defensive form and the Colts’ sudden, season-altering QB injury. The environment at Lumen Field magnifies those issues for the Colts, increasing the likelihood of turnovers and stalled possessions. I expect Seattle to control the line of scrimmage, limit long Colt possessions, and convert key red-zone opportunities while the Colts struggle to produce consistent drives.

Projected final score (my model): Seattle 30, Indianapolis 13 — Seahawks by 17.

Confidence: Medium-high — the Daniel Jones injury and Seattle’s defensive trend are decisive factors.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks -13.5