Ravens vs Steelers prediction and analysis
Game snapshot
The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) visit the Baltimore Ravens (6-6) on Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium. The market lists Baltimore as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under near 43.5. Both teams are squarely in the middle of the playoff picture and this divisional tilt has implications for seeding — and momentum — down the stretch.
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Quick context and form
- Pittsburgh: Started fast (3-1) but cooled off after the bye, losing ground with inconsistent offensive production. Aaron Rodgers’ efficiency has dipped at times this season and the Steelers’ offense managed just 166 yards and one touchdown in a recent loss to Buffalo. Their run game exists but the overall offense has struggled to sustain drives late.
- Baltimore: Rebounded from a 1-5 stretch to string together several wins before a Thanksgiving loss to Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson remains the offensive fulcrum, and Derrick Henry provides a true downhill complement. The Ravens’ offense typically controls tempo and the run game keeps opponents from dictating the clock.
Key matchups that decide the game
- Ravens run game vs. Steelers front seven: Baltimore’s ability to establish Henry and get Jackson on the edge forces Pittsburgh into tough defensive choices. If the Ravens win the line-of-scrimmage battle and chew clock, Pittsburgh’s offense will have fewer possessions to exploit.
- Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers pass defense: When Jackson can convert on play-action and use his legs, the Ravens create explosive opportunities. Pittsburgh’s pass rush has had sporadic moments; they need pressure to push Jackson into mistakes.
- Aaron Rodgers’ rhythm vs. Ravens secondary: Rodgers still makes elite throws when upright, but the Ravens thrive on limiting chunk plays and winning situational downs. Turnovers or three-and-outs will tilt the game Baltimore’s way.
Trends and situational edges
- Divisional rivalry games are typically closer than records suggest, but Baltimore has shown an ability to cover as favorites following a division loss — a strong situational trend here.
- Pittsburgh’s recent road history in December versus AFC opponents has been poor, and the Steelers have struggled to close out games when relying on Rodgers to spark late comebacks.
- Game-script matters: if Baltimore sustains long drives with the run, the total will skew lower despite the teams’ recent over tendencies in specific splits.
Betting angles
- Spread: Baltimore (-5.5) looks fair given home-field, run dominance and turnover differential potential. I prefer Baltimore to cover if the public price sits around -5 to -6.
- Moneyline: The Ravens ML is appealing in smaller size if you want to avoid the spread; they should be favored in regulation with home crowd and a physical identity.
- Total: 43.5 is a touch low given both teams can score, but the Ravens’ clock-control style and Pittsburgh’s offensive inconsistency push me toward a lean under — I’d avoid a full commitment unless sharper line movement or injury news emerges.
- Player props: Derrick Henry anytime TD looks attractive (high floor on goal-line and early-down usage). Lamar Jackson 60+ rush yards is also a reasonable play if you expect Baltimore to lean on his legs.
Final Prediction
This matchup tilts Baltimore’s way. The Ravens have the run-game personnel and play-caller comfort to control tempo, and even after a shaky outing they have shown the ability to correct course quickly. Pittsburgh’s offensive ceiling with Rodgers is still there, but the consistency to win a road divisional game in December feels limited. Expect the Ravens to win a physical, controlled game, likely by a one-possession margin.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens by 7 (take Baltimore -5.5; consider Ravens moneyline or Derrick Henry anytime TD)
