Ravens vs Bengals prediction and analysis

Game Details

Thursday, November 27, 2025 — 8:20 pm EDT at M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)

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Line: Baltimore Ravens -7   O/U: 51.5

Game Overview

The Ravens come into this short week riding a streak and a strong run game, while the Bengals are trying to reverse a miserable stretch and — reportedly — will have Joe Burrow back under center. Baltimore’s balanced rushing attack led by Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat play has sustained drives and kept opposing offenses off the field. Cincinnati’s season has been defined by defensive breakdowns and inconsistent quarterback play; a Burrow return changes the offensive ceiling, but it doesn’t magically fix coverage and pressure issues.

Key Factors to Watch

• Ravens run vs. Bengals front seven: Baltimore averages near the top of the league in rushing production this year and spreads carries across multiple backs. If the Bengals continue to struggle to gap-fit and finish tackles, Henry and Jackson will control time of possession.
• Turnover/pressure edge: Cincinnati’s defense has surrendered a lot of explosive plays and points. Baltimore’s tempo and short-yardage efficiency have improved in second halves — winning the turnover battle or getting consistent pass-rush pressure could tilt this one decisively.
• Quarterback availability: Joe Burrow’s presence raises the Bengals’ ceiling. Even so, a single QB return after injury or a week off rarely results in a flawless performance; timing, protection, and matchup will dictate how much advantage Cincinnati actually gets.
• Home-field and situational trends: The Ravens have been solid at home recently and play well in primetime when controlling the line of scrimmage. Short weeks favor disciplined, run-heavy teams — a script Baltimore is built to execute.

Matchups That Decide This Game

• Derrick Henry vs. Bengals run defense: If Henry consistently breaks the second level, the Ravens will chew clock and limit Burrow’s possessions.
• Lamar Jackson’s rushing threats vs. Bengals linebackers: Jackson’s ability to pull plays and extend drives forces Cincinnati’s LBs to honor the quarterback run, opening lanes for Henry and RPOs.
• Ja’Marr Chase & Bengals receivers vs. Baltimore secondary: The Ravens will need to blanket Chase and make Burrow rely on intermediate throws; if mismatches occur deep or in the slot, Cincinnati can score quickly.

Betting Angles

At a 7-point spread, Baltimore is priced as a clear favorite — which makes sense given recent form and matchup advantages. However, two variables matter to bettors:

• Burrow’s accuracy and timing: If he’s sharp, the Bengals’ offense suddenly becomes much more efficient and can exploit a Ravens secondary that has been tested at times.
• Pace and finishing drives: Baltimore’s offense can grind out long drives that keep the Bengals off the field. The longer the game stays close, the more the total creeps up toward the over.

Why I’m Leaning Ravens — and Why the Total Matters

Defensively, Cincinnati has allowed a lot of points this season; even with Burrow back, the Bengals are still vulnerable to sustained, downhill rushing attacks. Baltimore’s offense is constructed to exploit those weaknesses on the ground, and if the Ravens win the line-of-scrimmage battle they’ll convert long drives into points and keep Burrow from mounting consistent comebacks.

That said, Burrow’s return raises the likelihood of quick strikes — and Ja’Marr Chase remains a game-breaking variable. Combine Baltimore’s productive run game with the Bengals’ ability to score in bursts and you get a game that can hit the board on the over. Recent history between these teams has produced shootouts, and both sides have playmakers who can change the scoreboard fast.

Final Prediction

Call: Take Baltimore to win and the total to go over. I expect the Ravens to control the clock and finish in the red zone, while Cincinnati will produce enough explosive plays with Burrow back to keep the scoreboard churning.

Projection: Baltimore Ravens 31, Cincinnati Bengals 23

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -7 & Over 51.5