Ravens vs Bears prediction and analysis
Game Overview
The Baltimore Ravens (1-5) host the Chicago Bears (4-2) on Sunday, October 26 at M&T Bank Stadium. The betting market currently lists the Ravens as roughly a touchdown favorite (Baltimore -6.5) with the total set near 48.5. This matchup pits a struggling Ravens offense that should get Lamar Jackson back under center against a Bears team riding a four-game winning streak behind Caleb Williams and a productive running attack.
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Key Factors to Watch
- Health and availability: Baltimore’s biggest variable is Lamar Jackson’s status. If he’s fully healthy and sharp, the Ravens’ offense moves into a different tier. Chicago’s core (Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze) has been available and productive.
- Rushing attacks: Derrick Henry has been a workhorse for the Ravens and remains their primary game-mover on the ground. The Bears counter with D’Andre Swift, who has been gaining yards consistently and putting pressure on defenses to respect the run.
- Turnovers and takeaways: Chicago ranks among the league leaders in interceptions this season, which can swing tight games. Baltimore has been sloppy in recent outings — turnover margin is a big reason for their 1-5 record.
- Defense vs. explosive plays: The Bears’ defense has surrendered some big plays and red-zone points at times. Baltimore still has playmakers (Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers) who can break a game open if the pass protection holds up.
- Coaching adjustments: The Ravens will need schematic fixes to get back to their efficient run-pass balance. Chicago’s coaching staff has put its young core in a position to win close games and protect leads.
Matchup Details
From a schematic standpoint this favors Baltimore if Lamar is under center. The Ravens excel when they can threaten with quarterback run options and use Henry as a complementary downhill runner. Baltimore’s OL and scheme tend to create favorable blocking angles for Henry in short-yardage and mid-distance situations.
Chicago, meanwhile, plays a balanced offensive game. Caleb Williams has managed the pocket and the playbook well; his connection with Rome Odunze and the interior run game with Swift gives them multiple ways to sustain drives. Where Chicago can hurt the Ravens is by forcing Lamar into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations or by taking advantage of any sluggish defensive front.
Situational Trends and Betting Angles
- Home-field matters: The Ravens are typically tougher at M&T Bank, and Baltimore’s defense can bend without breaking when Jackson is directing the offense.
- Rest and public market: The Bears have won four straight but will be on the road. Historical situational trends favor home favorites in this range, which supports Baltimore covering.
- Totals perspective: With both teams capable of moving the ball and recent Ravens games producing offense when Lamar plays, the total around 48.5 looks playable toward the over if both quarterbacks are active.
Final Prediction
This is a pick driven by matchup and context rather than narrative. Chicago’s winning streak is impressive and their turnover-creation is a real edge, but the Bears’ defense has shown vulnerability to physical, sustained attacks. If Lamar Jackson is indeed active and close to full strength, Baltimore’s offensive ceiling and Henry’s consistent rushing make the Ravens tougher to handle at home.
I expect the Ravens to control the line of scrimmage more often than not, convert key third downs, and avoid the kind of self-inflicted errors that have cost them recently. The Bears will score and keep it close, but Baltimore should be able to manufacture enough points and tempo to cover a short touchdown spread.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -6.5
