Raiders vs Jaguars prediction and analysis

Game Overview

Sunday, Nov. 2 — Allegiant Stadium (4:05 p.m. ET). The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) travel to Las Vegas (2-5) coming off a heavy defeat, while the Raiders are reeling after a shutout loss to Kansas City. The market currently lists Las Vegas as roughly a 2.5-point home underdog with an over/under near 44.5.

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What to Watch

Both teams arrive here having been humbled in their most recent outings, which makes this a bounce-back spot on paper. Key context:

• Jaguars offense: Trevor Lawrence is running a productive season overall and the rush attack led by Travis Etienne gives Jacksonville a reliable way to control tempo. The Jags average around 20 points per game and are more balanced than the Raiders.
• Raiders struggles: Las Vegas is generating the fewest first downs in the league and has been inefficient in the red zone. Geno Smith has been turnover-prone for stretches and the offense has failed to stay on the field consistently.
• Defensive edges: Jacksonville has had trouble producing sacks but has created turnovers; Las Vegas has allowed points in bunches in recent weeks. The Jaguars’ secondary tendencies and ball-hawking nature could matter if Geno is forced into quick decisions.

Key Matchups

• Offensive line vs. pass rush: If the Raiders can pressure Lawrence and force quick throws, they stand a chance. Jacksonville has not recorded many sacks this season, so pressure will likely need to come from blitzes and scheme.
• Travis Etienne vs. Raider front: Etienne’s efficiency and receiving chops give Jacksonville a two-way rushing threat. If Etienne finds lanes and defenses stack the box, Lawrence can exploit the underneath passing game.
• Geno Smith’s accuracy vs. Jacksonville secondary: Smith has been inconsistent this season; the Jaguars intercept more than most teams. Turnovers are a plausible swing factor in this matchup.

Trends and Situational Notes

• The Raiders have been especially porous in producing first downs and converting in the red zone — two metrics that tend to translate to sustained drives and scoring.
• Jacksonville has had mixed results after losses but possesses the more stable offensive identity overall.
• Historically the road team has often started fast in recent meetings, and both clubs will be motivated to avoid back-to-back blowouts.

Betting Angles

This is a close number in a game between two uneven teams. Two reasonable plays emerge:

• Spread: Back Jacksonville to cover as the better all-around unit. The Jaguars’ balanced attack and turnover edge make them a safer bet than a Raiders offense that struggles to sustain drives.
• Total: Lean toward the UNDER 44.5 as both teams have shown tendencies to play lower-scoring games after heavy losses and Las Vegas’ offensive inefficiency suggests fewer sustained scoring drives.

Final Prediction

My read: the Jaguars are the cleaner team here. Las Vegas has the home-field label, but their offensive profile (few first downs, poor red-zone efficiency) creates an uphill climb against a Jacksonville defense that can force turnovers even while generating modest pressure. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne give the Jaguars multiple ways to control clock and field position. I expect Jacksonville to win a competitive game and to cover a small spread.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (take Jaguars -3 or Jaguars moneyline). Lean: UNDER 44.5 as a secondary play.