Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos prediction and analysis

Game Overview

The Denver Broncos (10-2) travel to Allegiant Stadium to face the Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) in a Week 14 AFC West clash. Denver arrives on a long winning streak and is chasing seeding in the AFC, while the Raiders are mired in a disappointing season and looking for signs of progress. The market lists Las Vegas as roughly a +7.5 home underdog with an Over/Under around 40.5.

Recommended Sports Betting Sites

What Matters Most

Handicapping this one comes down to three core questions: Can Denver’s offense keep rolling without becoming one-dimensional? Will the Broncos’ pass rush continue to disrupt the Raiders? And can Las Vegas find enough offensive consistency at home to stay within the number?

• Denver’s offense: Bo Nix has provided steady production, combining pocket accuracy with a threat to extend plays with his legs. J.K. Dobbins gives the Broncos a downhill option on early downs, and Courtland Sutton remains the primary downfield threat.
• Broncos’ pass rush: Denver’s defensive front has been a real difference-maker this season, piling up sacks and pressuring opposing quarterbacks. That has consistently shortened games and forced turnovers.
• Raiders’ struggles: Las Vegas has had difficulty closing out opponents and generating consistent defensive pressure. Geno Smith’s turnover total and the Raiders’ subpar sack numbers are recurring concerns.

Key Matchups

Matchups to watch that will swing game flow:

• Broncos front seven vs. Raiders offensive line: If Denver can get home with regularity, Geno Smith will have to make hurried throws—exactly the situation that increases interception and sack chances.
• Sutton vs. Raiders secondary: Courtland Sutton’s size and contested catch ability create mismatches; if Denver targets him on early downs and play-action, they can keep drives moving.
• Raiders run game vs. Broncos linebackers: Ashton Jeanty and supporting backs can keep this game closer if they consistently gain yards on first and second down, control the clock, and limit Denver’s possessions.

Trends and Situational Notes

Recent team trends favor Denver. The Broncos are carrying momentum with a multi-game win streak and a defense that thrives in short-field situations. Las Vegas, meanwhile, has lost a number of divisional contests and has struggled to cover spreads as a perpetual underdog.

Additionally, historical and situational indicators point toward a lower-scoring result: Denver’s recent offenses against AFC opponents have frequently gone under the posted totals, and divisional games between these teams have often been more grind than shootout. That said, Raiders home games as underdogs sometimes produce outlier shootouts, so the total is not a lock.

Betting Angles

• Straight spread: Denver -7.5 looks fair given the team strengths and current form. The Broncos should have the depth and defensive edge to create multiple short fields and a two-score margin late.
• Game total: Lean Under 41. The Broncos’ recent games and divisional tendencies push toward fewer possessions and lower scoring, and Denver’s defense can force quick punts and turnovers.
• Player props: Look at rush attempts and under/over lines for Bo Nix; if the number is modest, consider the over on rushing yards given his designed runs and scrambles. Courtland Sutton’s receiving yardlines also present value against a susceptible Raiders secondary.

Final Prediction

Putting the pieces together — Denver’s sustained form, a disruptive pass rush, and Las Vegas’ offensive inconsistencies — the smart money is on the Broncos to win and cover. Expect Denver to control the line of scrimmage early, convert turnovers into short fields, and close the door in the second half. I also like the game staying under the projected total given both teams’ recent tendencies in divisional play.

Prediction: Denver Broncos -7.5