Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos prediction and analysis

Game Context

The Denver Broncos (12-3) travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) on December 25, 2025. Denver is fighting to preserve the top seed in the AFC while Kansas City is limping to the finish line without its franchise quarterback. The posted line is Chiefs +13.5 with an Over/Under of 36.5.

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Broncos Overview

Denver has quietly built one of the league’s most balanced teams. The offense, operating under Bo Nix, pairs a controlled pocket passing attack with a steady committee on the ground. Key contributors: Courtland Sutton as the primary vertical threat, J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey splitting carries, and reliable intermediate work from Evan Engram. On defense the Broncos generate pressure (double-digit sack contributors) and clog passing lanes enough to force opponents into long drives.

Chiefs Overview

Kansas City’s season has derailed without Patrick Mahomes. The receiving room still boasts playmakers — Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown — but quarterback turnover and inconsistent play have limited scoring. The ground game provides a measuring stick (Kareem Hunt/Isiah Pacheco), but the Chiefs’ pass rush and secondary haven’t created enough takeaways to compensate for offensive instability.

Key Factors That Will Decide the Game

• Quarterback situation: Denver enters with a stable starter and rhythm; Kansas City is working through its third-string options and continuity will be poor.
• Turnover and field position: With both teams able to produce short fields, the team that wins the turnover battle will control the scoreboard in a low-possession game.
• Run game vs. front seven: If Denver can establish the run early, they can chew clock and limit Kansas City’s opportunities — crucial when facing a makeshift passing attack.
• Special teams and short-field scoring: Arrowhead is traditionally noisy and energizes the home team, but a conservative Broncos game plan that emphasizes ball security blunts that edge.

Betting Angles and Trends

Several situational trends point toward a low-scoring outcome: Kansas City’s recent home games following losses have tended to play UNDER, and divisional matchups late in the season often turn into defensive chess matches. Additionally, Denver’s coaching staff has incentive to play a timeout-conscious, conservative game to preserve seeding — not to run up the score.

Against the spread, the large road favorite number (Broncos -13.5) is tempting but has risk — public perception can inflate these lines. That said, losing your starting QB late in December while facing a top-seeded opponent away from home is a material handicap.

Prediction Summary

Given the matchup, injuries, and context, I expect Denver to control the pace and win convincingly but without a shootout. The Broncos’ ability to sustain drives and take away big-play opportunities from a makeshift Chiefs passing game makes a modest cover likely. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ scoring ceiling is capped, which projects a low team total and a game that finishes under the listed total.

Final Read

Lean: Denver’s defense and ball-control offense grind out a win in Kansas City. Expect limited possessions, few explosive plays, and field-goal opportunities deciding late possession sequences.

Prediction: Denver Broncos -13.5; Under 36.5