Jaguars vs Titans prediction and analysis

Game Overview

Sunday in Jacksonville pits the 12-4 Jaguars against the 3-13 Titans at EverBank Stadium. Jacksonville enters on a lengthy win streak and is a double-digit favorite; Tennessee has shown flashes late but still ranks near the bottom in several defensive and situational metrics. This is a matchup of an efficient, balanced Jaguars attack versus a Titans roster that relies heavily on Tony Pollard and timely defensive plays.

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Key Matchups to Watch

• Trevor Lawrence vs. Titans pass defense — Lawrence is capable of controlling the pocket and beating coverages with intermediate accuracy. The Jaguars distribute the ball; if Jacksonville can avoid turnovers, they should dominate time of possession.
• Travis Etienne vs. Tennessee front seven — Etienne’s ability to force defenders horizontally will stress Tennessee’s run defense, which ranks poorly in third-down stopping and red-zone consistency.
• Cam Ward and Tennessee OL vs. Jacksonville pass rush — Ward has been pressured frequently this season. If Jacksonville’s front can generate consistent pressure, the Titans’ passing game will be limited to short gains and screens.
• Tennessee’s playmakers (Pollard, Chig Okonkwo, Chimere Dike) — Tennessee needs chunk plays and a heavy dose of Pollard to keep drives alive; success here is the only realistic path to covering a big spread.

What the Numbers Say

Jacksonville boasts a top-12 scoring defense and one of the league’s better rush defenses, while the Titans sit near the bottom in third-down conversion and allow more than 27 points per game. Offensively, the Jaguars balance a 1,000+ yard rusher with a passing attack that spreads targets across multiple receivers. Tennessee’s offense has produced some late-season signs of life, but their turnover margin, pass protection issues (Cam Ward has been sacked heavily) and defensive inconsistencies create a steep hill to climb.

Situational Factors

• Jacksonville is playing for divisional positioning and a likely higher seed — motivation and matchup-planning should be crisp.
• Tennessee’s late-season improvement is real but insufficient; historically, underdogs in this matchup have found sporadic success, but not enough to overcome this Jaguars roster at home.
• Weather and travel are neutral — the game in Jacksonville favors the more disciplined, lower-variance team.

Injury & Depth Considerations

Assuming no major late injuries to Trevor Lawrence or Travis Etienne, the Jaguars maintain a clear advantage in depth at both skill positions and along the defensive front. Tennessee’s pass protection and defensive backfield depth are areas of concern — both could be exploited by Jacksonville’s varied attack.

Prediction Summary

Matchup dynamics, statistical edges, and motivation point decisively toward the Jaguars. Jacksonville should be able to control the line of scrimmage, protect the football better, and convert enough third downs to keep drives alive and points on the board. Tennessee can create a few stress plays with Tony Pollard and select passing concepts, but sustained offensive efficiency against Jacksonville’s defense looks unlikely.

Best betting angle: Back Jacksonville to cover the number in the -13 to -14 range. If you prefer a lower-risk approach, consider a Jaguars team total prop — Etienne and the supporting receiving corps project to surpass a conservative team total in a controlled, high-possession game.

Expected score range: Jacksonville 27, Tennessee 13 (14-point margin). The Jaguars’ balanced attack and stout run defense create separation; expect Jacksonville to win by two touchdowns or more.

Final prediction: Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars -14