Jaguars vs Seahawks prediction and analysis

Game Overview

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) host the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at EverBank Stadium on Sunday. The market currently lists the Jaguars as a slim favorite (-1.5) with an O/U near 46.5. Both teams enter this game with momentum and complementary strengths: Jacksonville’s run-heavy attack and stingy red‑zone defense versus Seattle’s efficient passing offense and improving ground game. This project will break down matchups, trends and situational edges before delivering a clear prediction.

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Key Matchups to Watch

• Travis Etienne vs. Seattle front seven — Jacksonville leans on Etienne to control tempo and set up play-action. His efficiency on the ground forces defenses to stay honest and opens up intermediate passing windows for Trevor Lawrence.
• Trevor Lawrence vs. Seattle secondary — Lawrence hasn’t needed to throw it deep every snap, but his 1,000+ yards of production this season shows he can sustain drives. Seattle’s pass defense has had issues with explosive plays, so Jacksonville’s receivers can win intermediate matchups.
• Sam Darnold and the Seahawks passing game — Darnold’s high completion rate and chemistry with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp keep Seattle balanced. If Kupp continues to produce on the East Coast, Seattle can move the chains and convert in short-yardage situations.
• Run defense vs. play-action — Both teams prefer to establish the run. The side that wins the line of scrimmage and limits third-and-manageable will dictate tempo and the number of possessions in this game.

Trends, Health and Situational Angles

Recent trends paint a mixed picture. Jacksonville has looked strong at home and tends to cover as a favorite at EverBank Stadium; the Jaguars’ defense ranks among the better units in points allowed, while their offense benefits from a stable rushing attack. Seattle, meanwhile, has shown resilience on the road and an efficient passing attack with Darnold, but has struggled against high‑quality defensive fronts at times.

Situationally, this could be a classic trap spot for Jacksonville off a big win earlier in the week — teams coming off emotionally significant victories sometimes dip in focus the following week. That said, the Jaguars’ coaching staff has demonstrated an ability to avoid letdowns, and the favorable matchup against a Seattle secondary that can be exploited is a counterweight to the potential fatigue.

Numbers That Matter

• Scoring defense: Jacksonville sits near the top-10 in fewest points allowed; Seattle allows around the low-20s per game.
• Rushing: The Jaguars average more yards on the ground than Seattle, a key edge in controlling possession and clock.
• Passing efficiency: Darnold’s completion percentage is an important factor — Seattle gains chunk-yardage via quick throws and Kupp’s route-running.
• Turnover/playmaking: Jacksonville’s defensive backs have made timely interceptions this year, and Devin Lloyd’s ball-hawking ability can flip field position.

Betting Angle and Total Consideration

With the number under two points, this game is a typical small-spread home favorite scenario. I prefer to back the Jaguars at home due to their run game and defensive steadiness. The total near 46.5 is reasonable — both clubs create explosive plays but also value ball control, so the safer play is taking the side rather than forcing an O/U wager. Player prop angles to consider: Etienne anytime TD and Lawrence to exceed 220 passing yards if the Seahawks load the box and force Lawrence to throw.

Final Prediction

Jacksonville’s combination of a top run game and a disciplined defense creates matchup problems for Seattle. Expect the Jaguars to control pace with Etienne, limit Seattle’s big-play potential, and force a few critical stops. Seattle will move the ball at times through Darnold and Kupp, but Jacksonville’s ability to shorten the game and win key third downs should be decisive.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5. Expected final score — Jaguars 27, Seahawks 20.