Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction and analysis

Game Overview

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) travel to Empower Field at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos (1-2) on Monday night. The posted line is Denver -7.5 with an Over/Under around 44.5. Both clubs have shown flashes — and warts — through three weeks: the Bengals are coming off a demoralizing loss to Minnesota, while Denver dropped a close game to Los Angeles and looks to stabilize at home. This preview breaks down the key matchups, situational edges, and a clear betting lean.

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Key Factors to Watch

• Quarterback matchup and continuity. Cincinnati has rotated at QB with Joe Burrow limited and Jake Browning getting significant snaps; Denver’s offense is operating through Bo Nix. Nix has produced volume but Denver’s identity leans on establishing the run with J.K. Dobbins.
• Run game vs. pass rush. Dobbins is a clear workhorse for Denver and has been productive early; the Broncos’ defensive front has accumulated more pressures and sacks than Cincinnati’s unit so far. Denver’s ability to control the line of scrimmage will determine how often the Bengals are forced into long third downs.
• Home-field and altitude. Mile High remains a real factor late in games — Denver has enjoyed a strong home trend — which tends to favor the club that can run and win time-of-possession battles.
• Recent form and coaching adjustments. The Bengals have shown resilience in tough spots and life without a fully healthy Burrow, while Denver has been inconsistent despite offensive playmakers. Coaching decisions — especially in-game QB usage and fourth-down choices — will matter in a tight matchup.

Matchups and Numbers That Matter

Offensively Cincinnati still rests its hopes on Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to create chunk plays regardless of who is under center. Chase’s red-zone ability and big-play upside make him a constant threat that can shorten drives and tilt swings. Conversely, Denver leans on Dobbins to grind out yards and create favorable down-and-distance scenarios for Bo Nix to attack the intermediate field with Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin.

Defensively, Denver has been generating more pressure and has the edge in sacks and tackles for loss—a difference that matters when facing a backup QB trying to manage the game. Cincinnati’s secondary has shown playmaking potential (interceptions early in the year) but will need to handle Denver’s intermediate routes and crossers to keep possession long enough for their offense to sustain drives.

Betting Angles

• Spread (Cincinnati +7.5). The Bengals have a track record of covering as sizable underdogs and can hang around in low-scoring, possession-oriented games. Denver’s inconsistency and the altitude advantage reduce the probability of a blowout. If you prefer a single clear play, the Bengals getting 7.5 points is the primary lean.
• Total (Under 44.5). Trends point toward lower totals in Denver home Septembers and both teams have shown the ability to play methodically and stall possessions. Expect a grind-it-out game where field position and special teams are emphasized.
• Prop considerations. Look to the veteran rushers: Dobbins for a solid rushing line and Ja’Marr Chase for anytime TD upside. If Burrow’s availability is still murky, passing volume props for the Bengals’ WRs may be depressed — an edge for taking Chase’s touchdown over a modest price.

Final Prediction

This shapes up as a game where Denver’s home-field energy and run-first identity will keep them competitive, but Cincinnati’s playmakers and their recent toughness as underdogs make a one-score game likely. The Broncos are a clear favorite on paper, yet the matchup elements favor a closer-than-expected finish: Bengals have playmakers who can manufacture points in short fields, and Denver’s offense still has growing pains in sustaining long, high-scoring drives against a still-capable Cincinnati defense.

My core play: take Cincinnati +7.5. I’ll also lean the Under 44.5 as a secondary play in smaller units given the trend toward controlled tempo and Denver’s home September under-performance on totals.

Final prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +7.5

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +7.5