Cowboys vs Vikings prediction and analysis

Game Overview

The Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1) host the Minnesota Vikings (5-8) on Sunday night at AT&T Stadium. Dallas arrives off a high-scoring loss to Detroit but has been more consistent recently, winning three of four entering this matchup. Minnesota snapped a skid with a 31-0 victory over Washington, but that win came against a struggling opponent and masks a run of offensive inconsistency. The line sits with the Cowboys as roughly a touchdown favorite (Cowboys -5.5) and the total around 47.5.

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Why the Numbers Favor Dallas

• Explosive Dallas offense: The Cowboys rank first in yards per game (394.9) and first in passing yards per game (275.5). Dak Prescott leads the league in passing yards (3,637) and has been capable of big-volume performances even in losses.
• Minnesota’s stagnant offense: The Vikings are averaging just 19.6 points per game and 171.5 passing yards per contest. JJ McCarthy has flashes but also turnover risk — Minnesota’s offense has struggled to sustain drives against quality defenses.
• Turnover and situational edges: Dallas’ turnovers have been an issue at times, but they create explosive plays and can overwhelm a middling Vikings defense. Minnesota’s defensive profile shows occasional playmaking (multiple players with multi-sack games this year), but consistency against top-tier passing attacks has been limited.

Key Matchups to Watch

• Dak Prescott vs. Vikings secondary: Prescott has the arm and weapons to punish zone or soft-man coverage. If CeeDee Lamb is available and healthy, he remains the primary focal point; even without him, targets like George Pickens (productive this season) keep Minnesota’s defensive backs busy.
• Vikings front seven vs. Dallas run game: Dallas averages 119.5 rushing yards per game. If Minnesota can force more two-minute drives or rush-heavy series, they can limit Dak’s time to throw and keep the Cowboys’ big-play engine in check.
• JJ McCarthy’s decision-making: Minnesota’s rookie signal-caller showed improvement in the Washington win (three TDs) but has thrown as many interceptions (10) as touchdowns (9) on the year. Pressure from Dallas’ defensive front and tight coverage over the middle will be decisive.

Betting Trends & Totals

There are a couple of helpful trends: Dallas has a strong December home record against NFC opponents, and the Cowboys have covered often as home favorites in similar spots. Meanwhile, Minnesota has struggled as an underdog in December. Historical totals point to a tendency for overs in these Dallas home favorites games and in Vikings games as underdogs. With a listed total near 47.5, the game could push into the over if both teams mix quick strikes with broken-play scoring.

In-Game Scenarios and Coaching

Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys typically dictate tempo and are aggressive in play-calling when trailing or when the game opens wide. Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings roster can manufacture explosive plays but often needs sustained drives to stay competitive. Game script likely favors Dallas: if they establish early rhythm through the pass, Minnesota will be forced into riskier downfield attempts, increasing turnover probability and swing-play potential for the Cowboys.

Prediction Summary

Given the disparity in offensive production, track records at home in December, and the gamble Minnesota must take to match Dallas’ scoring, I’m siding with the Cowboys to win and cover. Expect Dallas to hold a modest advantage at halftime and then extend the margin in the fourth quarter as Minnesota presses. If CeeDee Lamb is limited or out, the Cowboys still have enough firepower to move the ball through the air; if he plays, expect an even clearer edge for Dallas.

Betting angle: Take Dallas -5.5 as the primary play. For alternate plays, consider the game’s tempo — the public trends favor the over, so a smaller play on Over 47.5 has merit if you anticipate both teams trading scores early.

Final prediction: The Cowboys control the line of scrimmage just enough to secure the win at home while forcing Minnesota into aggressive throws that lead to turnovers. Expect a 7-11 point Dallas victory.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys -5.5