Cowboys vs Vikings prediction and analysis

Game Context

The Minnesota Vikings (5-8) travel to AT&T Stadium to face the Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1) on Sunday, December 14, 2025. The posted line favors Dallas by 5.5 points with an over/under near 47.5. This night game pits a high-powered Cowboys offense against a Vikings roster that has struggled for consistency on both sides of the ball over the past month.

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Key Factors to Watch

• Injury updates: Dallas receiver CeeDee Lamb is in the concussion protocol after leaving the last game, which could limit his availability or snap count. Any absence or restriction for Lamb reshapes Dallas’ route distribution and boosts playing time for secondary targets.
• Quarterback matchup: Dak Prescott has been productive all season and ranks among league leaders in passing yards, forcing defenses to respect the vertical passing game. Minnesota’s QB room (JJ McCarthy) is developing but still prone to turnovers and accuracy issues at times.
• Offensive efficiency: The Cowboys are among the NFL leaders in yards per game and have routinely produced quick-strike scoring. The Vikings have struggled to sustain drives, averaging under 20 points per game recently.
• Turnover and tempo: Minnesota’s offense has been conservative at times, while Dallas pushes tempo and creates explosive plays. If Dallas forces turnovers or wins the special-teams/field-position battle, the game will open up quickly.
• Home November/December trends: Dallas has a strong record in December home games against NFC competition, and those trends matter when evaluating short spreads in late-season contexts.

Matchups and Schematics

Defensively, the Vikings still generate pressure at times and have shown they can make opponents uncomfortable in the trenches. However, their secondary has been tested this year — and Dak Prescott, even without his top receiver at full strength, will find mismatches. The Cowboys’ offensive line and quick passing game can neutralize Minnesota’s pass rush. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings rely on a balanced running game to keep McCarthy out of obvious passing downs; that game plan works best when Minnesota sustains drives and keeps Dallas’ offense off the field.

Why Dallas Has the Edge

• Explosive offense: Dallas ranks among the league leaders in yards and passing production. Even if Lamb’s role is reduced, the Cowboys have playmakers who can stretch the field and convert third downs.
• Coaching and preparation: Playing at home under prime-time lights favors Dallas’ veteran coaching staff and their ability to leverage matchup advantages and in-game adjustments.
• Recent form: Despite the loss to Detroit, the Cowboys have shown capacity to score in bunches and rebound quickly. Minnesota’s recent wins are spotty; they’ve had a hard time posting consistent offensive outputs against above-average defenses.

Why Minnesota Can Keep It Close

• Turnover potential: McCarthy has shown he can protect the ball, but he’s also thrown interceptions in key moments. A turnover or two could flip momentum for Minnesota.
• Run-control opportunity: If the Vikings commit to the run and win the time-of-possession battle, they can limit possessions for Dallas and create a lower-scoring, closer contest.
• Underdog motivation: As a team with playoff hopes more tenuous, Minnesota can play with urgency and catch Dallas on a night where special teams or situational football decide the outcome.

Final Prediction

Given the overall offensive firepower, home-field advantage and coaching edge, I expect the Cowboys to control this game. The biggest unknown is CeeDee Lamb’s availability and how much that reduces Dallas’ explosiveness; however, the Cowboys have enough complementary weapons and a passing attack led by Dak Prescott that will challenge Minnesota’s secondary all night.

My lean: Dallas covers the short spread and the game pushes toward the over if Lamb plays significant snaps. If Lamb is ruled out, expect a slightly lower total and a smaller Dallas margin — but still a Cowboys win.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys -6 (take Cowboys -5.5 if available)