Commanders vs Cowboys prediction and analysis
Game Overview
On December 25 the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) travel to Northwest Stadium to face the Washington Commanders (4-11). The market currently lists Washington as a roughly one-score home underdog (+7) with an over/under near 50.5. On paper this looks like a classic mismatch between a high-powered, inconsistent Dallas offense and a beat-up Cowboys defense against a Commanders roster that has struggled to string wins together but still possesses playmakers on both sides of the ball.
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Key Factors
- Dallas’ offense vs. Washington’s defense: The Cowboys still rank near the top in passing yards per game and Dak Prescott has been efficient this season. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens provide explosive playmaking, and Javonte Williams gives Dallas a reliable rushing option. However, Dallas’ defense has been porous—particularly vs. the pass—leaving the door open for opposing QBs and playmakers to hang points.
- Commanders’ rushing balance: Washington has a productive ground game (one of the better per-game rushing outputs on the roster this year) and multiple backs capable of producing chunks. That helps control the clock and reduces the number of possessions for a Dallas offense that can score quickly.
- Quarterback matchups and tempo: Marcus Mariota has been a steady game-manager rather than a high-volume passer. If Washington leans on the run and limits turnovers, they can keep this within striking distance. Conversely, if Dak gets into rhythm early, Dallas can flip field position and force the Commanders into high-variance passing situations.
- Recent form and situational trends: Dallas enters this game on a multi-game slide, failing to cover several role expectations as favorites. Washington has lost many contests but covers more often than their record suggests when lines widen and they get points. Week 17 history in the NFC East also tilts toward volatile outcomes where favorites have underperformed.
Matchup Notes
– The Cowboys’ top-ranked passing attack this season is offset by one of the league’s worst pass defenses, creating the potential for a high-scoring affair.
– Washington’s defense gives up yardage but has veteran playmakers who can force momentum-changing plays; Bobby Wagner’s tackling and Von Miller’s pass rush remain impact factors.
– Turnovers and special teams play will be key. Washington’s chance to stay close depends on limiting mistakes and converting short fields into points; Dallas’ ability to protect Dak and win the turnover battle should determine whether the spread gets covered.
Betting Angles
- Main play — Washington +7: Give the extra score to a Commanders defense that can make enough plays to keep this within one possession. Dallas has shown vulnerability as a favorite lately, and Washington’s ground game plus short-field opportunities make +7 attractive.
- Live/second-half angle: If the Cowboys jump out early, consider a second-half live fade on Dallas as they’ve struggled to sustain pressure and cover leads. Conversely, if the Commanders start slow, the Cowboys have the firepower to pull away—so shop live lines.
- Total: Lean towards the over. Both clubs have produced high point totals in similar matchups this season, and historical NFC East games at this time of year trend toward offense. The line around 50.5 feels reachable given both defenses’ yardage allowances.
Final Prediction
Why I like the underdog: Dallas’ recent skid, combined with defensive liabilities and spotty cover performance as favorites, reduces confidence in laying a full touchdown. Washington, while flawed, can run the ball, chew clock and benefit from bonus possessions if Dallas turns the ball over or gives short fields. The number (+7) gives the Commanders a realistic margin for staying competitive late.
Prediction: Washington Commanders +7
