Commanders vs Bears prediction and analysis

Game Info

Monday, October 13, 2025 — 8:15 pm EDT • Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Line: Washington Commanders -4.5 • Over/Under: 49.5

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Matchup Snapshot

This Monday night pairing pits a Washington team that has leaned on a diverse run game and opportunistic defense against a Chicago squad led by rookie QB Caleb Williams and a high-upside receiving corps. The Commanders (3-2) bring momentum after a dominant second-half performance vs. the Chargers, while the Bears (2-2) are coming off a narrow comeback win in Las Vegas.

Key Factors

• Washington’s ground balance: The Commanders are averaging 156.4 rushing yards per game and have multiple backs and playmakers (including Jacory Croskey-Merritt) capable of breaking long gains. That rushing diversity forces opponents into awkward defensive looks.
• Explosive playmakers: Jayden Daniels can take advantage of Deebo Samuel’s dual-threat ability — Samuel’s involvement in the run and pass game creates matchup problems for linebackers and slot defenders.
• Chicago’s offensive ceiling: Caleb Williams has been productive (over 900 passing yards in four games) and Rome Odunze is a bona fide red-zone threat. The Bears can put up points quickly when Williams is on target.
• Defensive contrast: Washington is allowing 20.2 PPG this season and showed pass-rush juice vs. the Chargers (five sacks), while the Bears’ defense has struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard (29.3 PPG allowed). That difference points to Washington dictating tempo.
• Situational and trend edges: Chicago has shown inconsistency on the road after wins and has a recent history of failing to cover as underdogs. Washington has been strong in October and has a favorable home/first-quarter profile.

Matchup Dynamics and What to Watch

If Washington can control the line of scrimmage with its run game, the Commanders force Caleb Williams into more third-and-long situations where turnovers or punts become likelier. Conversely, if the Bears get into a shootout and Leverage early passing downs to Odunze and D.J. Moore, Chicago’s path to victory is to outscore Washington rather than slow the clock.

Special teams and turnovers will be key. The Bears won their last game thanks to forcing turnovers; if they repeat that performance, they swing the upset needle. But Washington’s defensive front and ability to generate tackles for loss could limit Chicago’s rhythm and protect a moderate lead.

Injury & Personnel Notes

Both teams have battled midseason bumps, but Washington’s proven depth in the backfield and the receiving options around Daniels give them an edge if any single piece is limited. Chicago’s offense centers on Williams, Odunze and Swift — if Washington can slow the Bears’ rushing game, it forces Williams into higher-variance throws.

Analytical Lean

Numbers favor Washington. The Commanders average roughly a touchdown more per game than they allow and control several matchup areas: run production, defensive pressure and home-field situational trends. The Bears’ offense is dangerous, but Chicago’s defensive inconsistencies — particularly giving up points — make me skeptical of their ability to keep pace in the fourth quarter.

Final Prediction

What I expect: Washington wins the field position battle, leans on a balanced running attack, and pressures Caleb Williams enough to generate two or more pivotal stops/turnovers. The Bears will score, but they won’t consistently slow Washington’s multi-faceted offense.

Betting angle: Take the Commanders to cover the 4.5-point spread at home. If you prefer totals, the tilt toward a methodical Washington running game and league trends for Week 6 NFC matchups suggest a lean to the Under 50, but the safer single play is Washington -4.5.

Prediction: Washington Commanders -4.5