Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens prediction and analysis

Game Overview

Sunday at Paycor Stadium the 6-7 Baltimore Ravens visit the 4-9 Cincinnati Bengals in a divisional rubber match. The market currently lists the Bengals as 2.5-point home underdogs with an over/under near 52.5. This is a meaningful late-season game for both clubs: Baltimore needs a win to keep slim playoff hopes alive and Cincinnati is playing for pride and momentum toward next year.

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Form, Context and What Changed Since Thanksgiving

Baltimore’s season has been a tale of two stretches — a brutal 1-5 slide early followed by a five-game winning run after the bye. The Ravens have produced heavy rushing volume (Derrick Henry) and still rely on Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability. Their recent loss to Pittsburgh showed they can move the ball — 420 yards on offense last week — but turnovers and situational defense have been recurring problems.

Cincinnati has been inconsistent but dangerous. Joe Burrow remains an elite passer when protected, and the Bengals’ offense can score quickly — even in losses, they’ve shown the ability to put up points (39 in a shootout with Buffalo). The Bengals beat Baltimore on Thanksgiving 32-14, but that game featured four Ravens fumbles and generally poor offensive execution from Baltimore.

Why Baltimore Has the Edge

• Run-game control: Derrick Henry and Baltimore’s multi-weapon rushing attack can shorten drives and limit Burrow’s opportunities — that’s the formula that helps suppress an opponent’s pass attempts.
• Playmaker depth: Zay Flowers and company provide matchup problems underneath, and Jackson’s scrambling keeps Cincinnati’s pass rush off-balance.
• Motivation & situational history: Baltimore tends to respond after division defeats; they’ll be focused to avoid a 3-game skid.

Why Cincinnati Can Stay Close

• Home environment: Paycor Stadium has been a tough place for opponents, and the Bengals are better at home even this year.
• Big-play offense: Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase (and Tee Higgins) can flip games quickly; any breakdown by Baltimore’s secondary can lead to scoring drives.
• Baltimore turnover tendency: The Thanksgiving meeting showed the Ravens are vulnerable to ball security issues — turnovers in a dome can swing momentum fast.

Key Matchups to Watch

• Ravens OL vs Bengals pass rush: If Cincinnati generates consistent pressure on early downs, Jackson will be forced into uncomfortable throws and reduce the run-game rhythm.
• Burrow vs Ravens linebackers/safeties: The Ravens use varied looks; if they disguise coverage and get pressure from the second level, they can force Burrow into longer drives.
• Special teams and turnovers: In a tight spread, a field-position swing, penalty, or takeaway will be decisive.

Betting Angles & Props

The number sits close to a pick’em, and the total (52.5) suggests the market expects a moderately-high scoring game. If you like team-side plays, fading the public on a short spread at home for an underdog like Cincinnati has merit — Bengals have covered several recent home spots — but I prefer looking at props:

• Rushing totals: Derrick Henry carries should be a target — he’s likely to see 20+ touches.
• Burrow passing yards/Completions: In games with elevated totals he routinely exceeds yardage thresholds; a modest over on completions or yards is viable if the line stays high.
• Game script hedge: If you back Baltimore, consider a small same-game parlay that includes a Ravens takeaway or Henry 20+ rush attempts to protect against a chaotic shootout.

Prediction Summary

This is a rivalry tilt that can go either way, but I expect the Ravens to dictate tempo and keep Joe Burrow from sustaining a high-variance shootout. Baltimore’s ability to control the clock with Henry and force Burrow into longer possessions should be the difference in a close contest. I’ll take Baltimore to win by a field goal or more while recognizing Cincinnati will make it competitive late.

Final Prediction

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -3 (expect a low-to-moderate scoring game; consider Henry rush props and a Burrow completions/yardage over if you like player props)