Cardinals vs Jaguars prediction and analysis
Game Overview
The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) travel to State Farm Stadium to face the Arizona Cardinals (3-7) on Sunday, November 23, 2025. The market has the Cardinals as small home underdogs (+2.5) with an Over/Under around 47.5. This projection evaluates roster matchups, recent form, situational edges, and betting angles to arrive at a clear pick and expected margin.
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What Matters Most
- Quarterback contrasts: Trevor Lawrence is the engine for Jacksonville—efficient, mobile and supported by a running game that controls tempo. Jacoby Brissett in Arizona is high-volume and accurate but has been left under pressure and put in tough spots by penalties and turnovers.
- Run game and time of possession: Jacksonville’s ability to chew clock and sustain drives is a key advantage. The Jags rank near the top in time of possession and have multiple backs who can move the chains.
- Arizona’s passing attack: The Cards can explode through the air—recent games include massive completion and yardage totals for Brissett, Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. That upside matters, but it often comes with turnovers and penalties that swing field position.
- Discipline and turnovers: Arizona’s recent games have featured costly penalties and turnovers; when those recur against a disciplined Jacksonville team, the scoreboard consequences are significant.
- Home-field and situational trends: The Cardinals have shown they can hang around as home underdogs and have covered similar spots versus AFC foes. Conversely, Arizona struggles against teams with winning records.
Keys to the Game
- Jaguars control the line of scrimmage: If Jacksonville wins the trenches and sustains drives, they limit Brissett’s play count and force Arizona into predictable passing downs.
- Protect the ball: Turnovers and penalties tipped the balance in Arizona’s recent blowouts. The Jaguars should exploit these miscues if the Cards do not clean them up.
- Exploit mismatches in coverage: Jacksonville’s receivers and tight ends finding soft spots against zone coverage will convert third downs and stall Arizona’s comeback attempts.
Betting Angles
At a line of Arizona +2.5, the market essentially splits the game. For bettors looking for value: if you want lower variance, take Jacksonville -2.5 (or the Jaguars moneyline if lines shift further). For contrarian plays, the Cardinals have shown cover profitability as small home dogs, but their inability to beat teams with winning records is a red flag. The total (47.5) leans toward the OVER given both teams’ recent high-scoring affairs and Arizona’s big passing games, but Jacksonville’s clock management could keep it modestly contained.
Projection and Injury/Context Notes
No late-breaking injury news is factored into this projection beyond the trends reported in recent weeks—Arizona has had lapses with penalties and turnovers, while Jacksonville has been cleaner and more balanced following its win over the Chargers. Coaching matchups favor the Jaguars’ ability to script a gameplan that minimizes the Cards’ strengths.
Prediction Summary
Jacksonville’s combination of clock control, a physical rushing attack and a defense that has tightened up recently gives them the edge in Phoenix. Arizona can still light up the scoreboard through the air, but the Cards’ penalty-prone and turnover-prone profile makes them vulnerable in a close game.
Final projection: Jaguars win by 6–8 points. Expect a controlled Jacksonville offensive pace, a modestly productive Arizona passing day, and a couple of game-turning miscues that favor the visitors.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars -3
