Cardinals vs Buccaneers prediction and analysis
Game Overview
The Arizona Cardinals (3-8) travel to Raymond James Stadium to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) on Sunday, November 30. The window line posted ahead of kickoff lists the Buccaneers as roughly a 3-point favorite with an over/under near 44.5. On paper this is a matchup between two middling offenses and below-average defenses, which points toward a competitive, high-leverage divisional tilt with scoring potential.
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Key Context
- Offense vs. Defense: Tampa Bay averages about 23.5 points per game while allowing roughly 25.8; Arizona is similar with roughly 22.5 scored and 25.7 allowed. That balance gives neither side a clear defensive advantage.
- Quarterback play: Baker Mayfield has been the steady hand for the Bucs, throwing for more than 2,400 yards and 18 touchdowns. Jacoby Brissett has been efficient for Arizona with high completion percentage and chunk-yardage passing to tight end Trey McBride.
- Rushing and tempo: Both teams are bottom-half rush attacks by yardage but can mix in explosive plays. Rachaad White and Zonovan Knight / Michael Carter are capable of creating second-level yards, which matters in late-game clock management.
- Recent form: Tampa Bay arrives with a multi-game skid and some defensive lapses — they surrendered a heavy number of points in recent matchups. Arizona has been inconsistent but has offensive pieces that produce in shorter fields and neutral situations.
Matchups to Watch
- Tampa Bay offensive line vs. Cardinals pass rush: If Arizona can generate consistent pressure it forces Mayfield into quicker decisions and reduces chunk completions to Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin.
- Cardinals’ tight end advantage: Trey McBride is a chain-moving matchup for Tampa Bay linebackers; Brissett targets him often on third downs and in the red zone.
- Turnover margin and special teams: Both clubs live and die by short fields created through turnovers and returns — an early takeaway could swing the line quickly given the teams’ similar offensive output.
Trends and Betting Angles
Historical and situational trends lean both ways, but a few practical betting angles stand out:
- Home-field edge: Tampa Bay is more comfortable at Raymond James and has performed better there this season — that supports backing the Bucs in a one-score game.
- Scoring environment: Recent combined outings between these teams have tilted toward the over, and the defenses have allowed enough quick-strike scoring to favor a higher total. The posted 44.5 looks reachable given both units’ defensive issues.
- Value considerations: With the Bucs favored by a field goal, bettors who like the home side get both the crowd and matchup continuity. Conversely, live underdog market value on Arizona could be appealing if you expect Brissett to move the chains effectively.
Why Tampa Bay Wins
The Buccaneers possess a marginally better record, home-field advantage and a quarterback with a track record of managing games and producing fourth-quarter comebacks when necessary. If Tampa Bay’s offensive line protects Mayfield and the secondary limits big plays to Trey McBride, the Bucs can control tempo with short passes and timely runs.
Why Arizona Could Steal One
Arizona’s passing game — particularly Brissett to McBride — can exploit mismatches against Tampa Bay’s linebackers in coverage. If the Cardinals win the turnover battle or generate consistent pressure, they can keep this under a possession and pull off an upset as a live underdog.
Final Prediction
Given the matchup, betting line and recent form, I expect a competitive, moderately high-scoring game. I give the Buccaneers a small edge because of home field and marginally steadier quarterback play, but the total has clear upside. Play conservatively on the side and more aggressively on the total.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
Secondary play: Total Over 44.5
