Buccaneers vs Dolphins prediction and analysis

Game Overview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) travel to Miami to face the Dolphins (6-9) on Sunday, December 28th. Tampa Bay arrives with a marginally better record but both teams have struggled down the stretch. The posted market line is Miami +5.5 with an over/under near 45.5. This game has implications for pride, playoff positioning for Tampa Bay in the NFC (if still mathematically alive), and roster evaluation for both clubs.

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Key Context and Form

• Recent form: Tampa Bay is limping into South Florida, having lost four of five and failing to cover in several spots. Miami has also sputtered, dropping consecutive games and looking inconsistent on offense.
• Offense vs. defense: The Buccaneers average roughly 23 points per game while allowing about 25.1; the Dolphins sit near 21 points for and 24.6 against. Neither unit is dominant, which points to a close, mistake- and turnover-driven affair rather than a shootout.
• Playmakers: Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle anchor Miami’s passing attack with De’Von Achane providing the explosive ground element. Tampa Bay counters with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — a veteran receiving corps that can produce chunk plays despite an inconsistent OL and run game.

Matchups That Matter

• Dolphins rush defense vs. De’Von Achane: Achane’s explosiveness creates a constant threat for Miami to control tempo. If Achane has room, Miami can chew clock and keep Mayfield off the field.
• Tampa Bay pass rush vs. Tua: Miami can be rattled when pressure is consistent. Tampa’s edge players must win one-on-one matchups to force negative plays and disrupt timing.
• Secondary battles: Mike Evans vs. Dolphins cornerback play will be a barometer. Evans has been a reliable red-zone threat, and how Miami defends contested catches could swing the scoring balance.

Factors Favoring Miami

• Home-field advantage and cooler motivation as underdogs in front of their fans.
• Tendency for Tampa Bay to struggle covering spreads recently — the Buccaneers have failed to cover in multiple straight games.
• Miami’s run game with Achane can shorten the game and limit big-play opportunities for Tampa.

Factors Favoring Tampa Bay

• Tampa’s offense still creates explosive passing opportunities with Evans and Godwin; one or two quick drives could flip the line.
• Buccaneers historically have performed well on the road against teams on losing streaks — situational trends that could matter in a close game.
• Miami’s defense has been inconsistent and is vulnerable to efficient pocket passing if pass protection holds up.

Betting Angles & Totals

The market price of Miami +5.5 looks inviting if you believe the Dolphins can keep this game close and exploit the run. The total near 45.5 is reasonable; leaning under is defensible given both teams’ middling scoring averages and recent defensive improvements in late-game situations. If Antoine Winfield Jr. or key defensive pieces are out for Tampa, that could nudge expectations toward more scoring — check injury reports close to kickoff.

Final Prediction

This projects as a tight, situational contest where home-field and a strong running game tilt the edge toward Miami. Tampa Bay’s recent inability to cover spreads and Miami’s ability to control early downs with De’Von Achane make the Dolphins the better betting value at +5.5. Expect a game decided by a field goal or less with limited explosive scoring.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins +5.5 — look for a 3-point Miami win (final score projection: Miami 23, Tampa Bay 20).