Broncos vs Jaguars prediction and analysis

Game Context

The Denver Broncos (12-2) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at Empower Field in a pivotal Week 16 showdown. The sportsbooks opened with Denver as a narrow favorite (Broncos -3) and a 45.5 total. On paper this is a classic clash: Denver’s dominant defense and home-field altitude advantage versus Jacksonville’s balanced, hot offense and a stingy run defense.

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Key Factors to Watch

• Quarterback play: Bo Nix has been efficient and protected well behind a strong front seven; Trevor Lawrence has been the engine of Jacksonville’s five-game winning streak and can win with his legs and arm.
• Pass rush vs. pass protection: The Broncos lead the league in sacks and pressure; Jacksonville’s offensive line will need to neutralize edge rushers to keep Lawrence clean and sustain drives.
• Run game balance: Both teams run the ball effectively — Travis Etienne gives the Jaguars a downhill identity while Denver relies on a committee led by J.K. Dobbins and rotational backs to control tempo.
• Situational trends: Denver’s home success and altitude effect matter, but ATS metrics and recent form point toward Jacksonville being undervalued at +3.

Matchup Breakdown

Defensively the Broncos bring pressure and an elite red-zone unit; they’ve made life difficult for quarterbacks and force opponents into negative plays. Jacksonville counters with a top-tier run defense and a secondary that can make splash plays in space. The key for Denver is to turn pressure into turnovers or quick three-and-outs — that shortens the game and amplifies the home-field advantage.

On offense, Trevor Lawrence’s weapons are deep and varied: matchup nightmares like Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington and the reliable Jakobi Meyers spread the field. If Jacksonville can establish Etienne, Denver will be forced to respect the run and open lanes for Lawrence. Conversely, if Denver can generate consistent pressure, they can force Lawrence into hurried throws and alter receiver timing.

Coaching and Game Script

Coaching decisions will matter. Denver’s staff has been aggressive on defense and opportunistic on third downs; they’ll look to pin their ears back and dictate the tempo early. Doug Pederson’s staff with Jacksonville has shown a willingness to adapt, leaning into balanced attack and clock control when needed. Expect Jacksonville to try and keep the Broncos’ defense on the field with sustained drives.

Betting Angles

• Spread value: Denver -3 is a popular number, but Jacksonville’s ATS record (strong in recent weeks) plus Denver’s mixed ATS performance as favorites suggest value on the visitors at +3.
• Total: Recent December games for Denver have trended up, and both teams can score. The 45.5 line could be playable to the Over if weather and game script favor an uptempo shootout.
• Props: Look at receiving yards for Jacksonville’s pass-catchers if Denver loads the box. For Denver, Bo Nix completion and yardage props are viable if he’s forced to throw often.

Prediction Summary

Denver’s defense and home-field advantage make them the preseason pick for many, but Jacksonville’s balance, recent form and matchup strengths — especially their stout run defense and diversified receiving corps — give them a clear path to keep this game within a field goal. The Broncos will challenge them up front, but the Jaguars have the personnel and coaching to control the clock and limit easy possessions.

I’m siding with the visitor at a short number. The Jaguars’ ability to sustain drives and avoid game-altering turnovers, combined with Denver’s occasional struggles to cover as favorites, flips the edge toward Jacksonville for bettors looking for points. Expect a low-to-moderate scoring game that is decided late.

Final lean: Take the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover the spread and force Denver into a close finish.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +3