Broncos vs Jaguars prediction and analysis

Game Info

Sunday, December 21, 2025 — Empower Field at Mile High, 4:05 PM ET. Betting line opened with the Denver Broncos as roughly a 3-point favorite; the posted total is 45.5.

Recommended Sports Betting Sites

Key Factors

• Records & form: Denver (12-2) arrives riding the NFL’s top defense and a lengthy home winning streak; Jacksonville (10-4) has won five in a row and is playing like a complete team on both sides of the ball.
• Quarterbacks: Trevor Lawrence (3,210 yards, 23 TD, 11 INT) has pushed Jacksonville’s offense into the top 10 in scoring. Bo Nix (3,256 yards, 23 TD, 9 INT) has been efficient and mobile, but will face consistent pressure from a sack-heavy Denver front.
• Rushing & receiving: Travis Etienne (949 rush yards, 7 TD) powers a Jaguars ground attack that averages ~120 ypg; Denver’s J.K. Dobbins leads a similar-volume rushing group. Jacksonville has multiple reliable pass-catchers; Denver spreads production between Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin and others.
• Defensive matchup: Denver ranks among the league leaders in sacks and red-zone defense, while Jacksonville has one of the stingiest run defenses in football — a clash of strengths that will force one team’s identity to bend.
• Situational trends: Denver has been dominant at home and has momentum, but their ATS record this season and some poor results as favorites since October are warning signs. Jacksonville has a strong ATS mark and plays well when getting points.

Matchup Breakdown

The most important matchup is Denver’s pass rush vs. Jacksonville’s pass protection. If the Broncos can generate consistent pressure on Lawrence without sacrificing edge containment against Etienne, they force more downfield mistakes and short-field opportunities. Conversely, Jacksonville’s best path to victory is to shorten the game — establish Etienne, chew clock and make Bo Nix earn chunk plays against a Jaguars defense that limits explosive plays.

Denver’s red-zone defense and ability to create negative plays can turn a 7-point swing here or there; special teams and turnover margin are likely to decide a close game. Offensively, both teams can move the ball, but the Jaguars’ balanced attack and depth among receivers gives Trevor Lawrence more reliable options when facing pressure. The altitude edge is real for Denver, especially late, but the cold-weather/altitude narrative is muted in mid-December—this is a matchup more decided by scheme and fundamentals than environment.

Trends favor the Jaguars in a betting sense: Jacksonville has covered a high percentage of games this season and plays well as an underdog. Denver’s favorites’ ATS performance since October has been underwhelming, which suggests public market inefficiency when the Broncos are short chalk. Still, matchups on paper give the Broncos a slight edge — elite front, efficient QB and home-field — so this is a true coin-flip that comes down to where you want to allocate edge.

Prediction Summary

Given the price (Broncos -3) and the matchup details, I lean to the Jaguars getting the points. Jacksonville’s run defense should make Denver sustain drives through the pass, creating chances for Lawrence to exploit intermediate windows or for Etienne to control tempo. Denver’s front will matter, but Jacksonville’s offensive balance, recent form and stronger ATS history make the visiting side the value play.

Projected score: Denver 23 — Jacksonville 26 (a tight, low-to-moderate scoring game where turnovers and a late field-goal swing determine the outcome).

Betting angle: Take Jacksonville +3 for the outright value. If you prefer a two-leg approach, consider a small play on Jaguars +3 and a conservative lean toward the under if you believe both defenses will limit big plays.

Final prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +3