Bengals vs Bears prediction and analysis
Game Info
Chicago Bears (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
Kickoff: November 2, 2025 — 1:00 pm EDT
Line: Bengals +1.5 — Over/Under: 51.5
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What to Watch
The Bears come into Paycor Stadium on a modest winning streak, buoyed by a productive combination of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, and a steady rushing attack led by D’Andre Swift. Chicago’s defense creates turnovers (they sit atop the league in interceptions), but has been prone to giving up chunk plays and scores.
The Bengals, despite an under-.500 record, have shown offensive life with Joe Flacco under center — a veteran presence who has managed the offense efficiently and helped the Bengals clear 30 points in consecutive outings. Cincinnati’s run game has been inconsistent, and the unit has surrendered a lot of yards and points, but they’re at home where the crowd and situational trends favor the underdog.
Key Factors
- Quarterback play: Williams is still developing — accurate enough but inexperienced — while Flacco offers steadiness and a hot hand recently. The matchup favors the team that protects its QB and limits big defensive plays.
- Turnover differential: Chicago’s defense forces interceptions, and those takeaways can flip field position quickly. Bengals’ secondary has been leaky; however, Flacco’s quick decision-making reduces risk compared with aggressive deep shots.
- Run game vs front seven: Bears run effectively, averaging over 120 yards per game, which helps shorten drives and control tempo. Cincinnati’s rush defense has allowed multiple 80+ rushers this season — this is a spot where Chicago can grind clock and limit possessions.
- Red zone efficiency: Both teams have struggled to be consistently efficient inside the 20. Chicago converts with Swift and their skill group; Cincinnati has leaned on Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to deliver chunk gains and end-zone trips.
- Home/road and situational trends: The Bears have stumbled in a number of road spots and are not a lock when favored away from home. Conversely, Cincinnati has historically performed well as a home underdog in recent seasons, and their coaching staff knows how to game-plan when they’re getting points.
- Game script: If Cincinnati can sustain drives and force Chicago into longer possessions, the Bengals keep this close. If the Bears’ offense finds rhythm through the run and Williams avoids mistakes, Chicago could pull away late.
Analytics and Betting Angles
A 51.5 total implies a moderately high-scoring contest. Recent play suggests both teams have been involved in OVER games at home and on the road respectively. With two explosive passing tandems on the field and defenses that have conceded yardage, the total has merit to the OVER — but turnovers and clock-eating runs could suppress scoring.
On the spread, the number is thin. Cincinnati being a home underdog under 2 points gives bettors a favorable margin: Flacco’s efficient passing and the Bengals’ ability to find an extra gear at home make +1.5 a palpable advantage. Chicago’s wins have come against softer opponents and their road cover history is shaky; this feels like a buy-low moment on the home side.
Prediction Summary
I expect a tight, physical game where possessions matter more than big plays. The Bears will try to control the clock with Swift and protect Caleb Williams, while Cincinnati will counter with quick passing, targeting Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to stretch the field. Turnovers could tilt the outcome, but the Bengals’ home crowd and recent offensive uptick give them the edge as the home underdog.
Lean: Take the Bengals +1.5. I also like the game to flirt with the OVER, but if you want a single clean play, take Cincinnati with the points.
Final prediction: Cincinnati 27, Chicago 24
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +1.5
