Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction and analysis

Game Info

Sunday, Dec. 7 — M&T Bank Stadium, 1:00 pm EDT. Line: Ravens -5.5, O/U: 43.5 (as listed). Two 6-6 AFC rivals meet in a meaningful late-season divisional game where playoff positioning and momentum are on the line.

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Context and Recent Form

The Ravens and Steelers both sit at 6-6 but arrive with contrasting trajectories. Baltimore has threaded together a five-game surge after a 1-5 start before a setback on Thanksgiving, while Pittsburgh rebounded early this year but has slumped, dropping three of four entering this matchup. Both clubs have turnover and consistency issues that have defined key losses — Baltimore’s turnover-palooza against Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh’s second-half collapse versus Buffalo.

Key Factors

• Offensive identity: Baltimore leans on Derrick Henry’s power running and Lamar Jackson’s playmaking; the Ravens still pile up yards on the ground and get critical third-down conversions when balanced. Pittsburgh’s offense under Aaron Rodgers is more one-dimensional lately — when the pass isn’t clicking, the run game hasn’t consistently compensated.
• Turnover battle: The Ravens’ Thanksgiving loss was notable for giveaways and short time of possession. If Baltimore can protect the ball and control the clock, they force Pittsburgh to sustain long drives — an area where the Steelers have struggled in the second half of games.
• Run defense vs. rush attack: Pittsburgh has given up big rushing totals in recent weeks, which plays right into Baltimore’s strength. Derrick Henry’s recent Week 14 form in prior seasons suggests he’s a reliable touchdown and yardage threat in this slot.
• Home-field and divisional edge: M&T Bank is a tough place to play late in the season. The Ravens’ familiarity with the Steelers and tendency to start fast at home matters — historically they’ve frequently scored first quarters and first halves versus Pittsburgh at home.
• In-game adjustments: After the Bills game, Pittsburgh’s offense showed difficulty sustaining drives and converting third downs; if Baltimore’s defense can continue attacking the line of scrimmage and harassing Rodgers, it will tilt the game toward the home team.

Matchups to Watch

• Derrick Henry vs. Steelers front seven: Can Henry reproduce his high-yardage, goal-line success? If so, Baltimore controls tempo and limits Rodgers’ opportunities.
• Lamar Jackson’s dual threat: Jackson’s passing efficiency at home and ability to add rushing yards keep defenses honest. Look for play-action and designed runs near the goal line.
• Aaron Rodgers vs. Ravens pass rush: Rodgers has the experience to pick apart zone coverage, but sustained pressure or timely blitzes could force mistakes.
• Special teams and field position: In a game projected around the mid-40s total, hidden yardage and a turnover in special teams could swing a one-score contest.

Betting Angles

The line at Ravens -5.5 is reasonable given matchup dynamics. Two betting edges to consider:

• If you believe Baltimore will establish the run and win time of possession, the straight side on -5.5 is logical — especially at home, where the Ravens have historically started strong against the Steelers.
• Conversely, if you expect a shootout driven by Rodgers finding mismatches and Jackson’s turnovers re-emerging, the under 43.5 might be tempting, but both teams have shown they can put up points in bursts. A safer contrarian play is taking Pittsburgh +5.5 if you want a cover-first approach.

Prediction Summary

This is a classic divisional trap game where small edges matter. I project Baltimore to do just enough: control the line of scrimmage, win the turnover battle or at least avoid the giveaway binge they showed on Thanksgiving, and exploit Pittsburgh’s second-half offensive inconsistency.

Final read: The Ravens’ rushing attack and home-field advantage should offset Pittsburgh’s passing chops. Expect a physical, low-to-medium scoring game where Baltimore pulls away in the fourth quarter.

Final Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -5.5

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -5.5