Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss prediction and analysis
Game Overview
This matchup features the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers taking on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. Both teams come into this contest with contrasting recent performances and statistical profiles that will heavily influence the betting and outcome of this game.
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Recent Trends and Team Form
- Southern Miss: This team has struggled significantly as an underdog, losing 15 of its last 16 games in such situations against non-AP-ranked teams. Additionally, Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against similar level competition, indicating difficulties in exceeding expectations.
- Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers have shown some promise, winning 3 of their last 4 games when playing Sun Belt Conference opponents at neutral sites. This suggests a capability to perform well in moderately neutral conditions, which could edge momentum in their favor here.
- The favorite has consistently covered the spread in Southern Miss’s last five bowl games, pointing towards a trend where Southern Miss struggles to outperform betting expectations.
Statistical Insights and Game Dynamics
- Scoring and Defense in Fourth Quarter: Southern Miss is ranked 20th in FBS for fourth-quarter points scored per game (9.3), showing a strong finishing ability on offense late in games. However, defensively, they are quite vulnerable in the fourth quarter, ranking 115th in opponent points allowed (8.5), which could be a concern against a Hilltoppers team with positive fourth-quarter differential.
- Western Kentucky’s Fourth Quarter Strengths: The Hilltoppers rank tied for 17th in FBS for average point differential in the fourth quarter (+3.8), indicating an effective ability to close games strong. Their low ranking in 4th down conversion percentage (tied 128th at 33.3%) is a potential vulnerability but might be mitigated by their overall strong finishes.
- Over/Under Trends: Seven of Western Kentucky’s last eight December games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line, while five of Southern Miss’s last six games as an underdog in Louisiana also went OVER. This suggests a likely high-scoring contest, which bettors should note.
Betting Outlook and Prediction Summary
Considering these factors, Western Kentucky’s demonstrated success against Sun Belt teams in neutral venues, coupled with their strong fourth-quarter performance, should give them the edge over Southern Miss. Meanwhile, Southern Miss’s recent struggles as an underdog and defensive shortcomings in closing out games may hinder their ability to secure a cover or upset.
Expect a game that surpasses the total points line, given historical tendencies for high-scoring outcomes when these teams meet similar conditions.
Final Prediction
Prediction: Western Kentucky to win and cover the spread, with the game going OVER the projected total points.
