Wake Forest vs Mississippi State prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The upcoming bowl game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Mississippi State Bulldogs presents an intriguing clash of styles and recent trends. Mississippi State, coming off a string of losses, faces a Wake Forest team that has shown resilience and solid performances, especially in neutral-site contests. Both teams have notable strengths and weaknesses that could influence the game’s flow and outcome.

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Key Team Trends and Stats

• Mississippi State has won their last five non-conference games and covered the spread four times as favorites in recent outings, despite currently suffering a three-game losing skid.
• The Bulldogs have struggled in the second half defensively, ranking 121st in opponent points allowed in the second half, allowing an average of 15.3 points. However, they are strong starters, tied for ninth in FBS with 9.2 points per game scored in the first quarter.
• Wake Forest has covered the spread in four of its last five games in North Carolina and their last six neutral-site games have generally gone under the total points line, signaling a more conservative game pace on neutral fields.
• The Demon Deacons excel defensively in the first half, holding opponents to just 8.6 points per game, ranking 13th nationally. Nevertheless, their red zone offense has struggled, ranking 124th with a 74.4% conversion rate.
• Special teams could be a factor, with Mississippi State’s Ethan Pulliam leading the SEC with an impressive 47.7-yard average punt, providing favorable field position opportunities.
• Defensive pressure should be monitored with Wake Forest’s Robby Ashford ranked 22nd nationally in sack percentage at 4%, indicating potential disruption against Mississippi State’s offense.

Betting Trends

Mississippi State has demonstrated a tendency to lose against the spread recently, failing to cover in their last three games. However, as favorites, they have been consistent in covering four of their previous matches. The Bulldog’s last six bowl games have seen the underdog win four times, which may provide some context given Mississippi State’s current form.

Points-wise, five of Wake Forest’s last six neutral-site games have gone under the total line, while Mississippi State favors higher scoring, with six of their last eight favorite games going over the total points line.

Prediction Summary

Considering Wake Forest’s sturdy defense, particularly in the early stages of the game, combined with Mississippi State’s inconsistent defense in the second half, this game could hinge on which team adjusts better. Wake Forest’s red zone inefficiency could keep scoring closer than expected, but their ability to stifle opponents’ first halves is a critical edge.

Mississippi State’s strong special teams and early scoring ability set the stage for a competitive start, but their recent struggles and failure to cover spreads hint at challenges overcoming Wake Forest’s defensive schemes.

Given these dynamics, the Demon Deacons appear poised to control the tempo, limit Mississippi State’s second-half efficacy, and pull off an upset or, at the very least, keep this game within a narrow margin.

Final Prediction

Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win, with a close scoreline expected. Consider taking Wake Forest against the spread based on recent performance trends and defensive strengths.