Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction and analysis
Team Overview
The Week 14 matchup features an in-state rivalry with the Vanderbilt Commodores traveling to face the Tennessee Volunteers. Both teams enter this contest with high stakes, as Vanderbilt looks to keep its playoff hopes alive, while Tennessee aims to play spoiler and secure a dominant win over their cross-state rival.
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Key Betting Trends and Historical Context
- Tennessee’s Dominance locally: The Volunteers have won their last 12 games against Tennessee-based teams, showcasing state supremacy.
- Vanderbilt Road Struggles: The Commodores have dropped their previous seven games against Tennessee teams and faced significant challenges on the road, losing the first half in 21 of their last 27 conference road games.
- Home vs. Road Betting Angles: The home team has covered the spread in five of Vanderbilt’s last six outings, while interestingly, the road team has covered the spread in each of the last six head-to-head matchups.
- November Trends: Tennessee has struggled to cover the spread in recent November games against AP-ranked teams, failing to do so in each of the last six such occasions, while Vanderbilt’s November games trend toward higher scoring outputs.
- Points and Scoring: Both teams have been involved in games that go OVER the total points line in recent meetings. Tennessee tops the FBS for first quarter and first half scoring, highlighting their fast starts. Vanderbilt excels in third quarter scoring, especially at home.
Player and Team Performance Insights
- Joey Aguilar (Vanderbilt QB): Among the FBS leaders with 3,145 passing yards this season, Aguilar is poised to challenge Tennessee’s defenses.
- Diego Pavia (Tennessee QB): Has posted 300+ passing yards in three straight games, matching the longest active streak in the FBS, signaling a potent passing attack.
- Offensive Strengths: Tennessee leads the FBS in Q1 (14.5 points per game) and first half scoring (25.5 points per game), suggesting they often set the tone early.
- Vanderbilt’s Firepower at Home: Vanderbilt has scored over 45 points in five home games this season, the highest in the FBS, and ranks fourth for third quarter points per game, reflecting their ability to adjust and score after halftime.
Prediction Summary
This rivalry game shapes up as an intense battle between two Tennessee programs with contrasting trends. Tennessee’s consistent success over local teams and their strong early-game offense give them a critical edge, especially with the game being on their home field. However, Vanderbilt‘s offensive capabilities and recent scoring consistency should help keep the game competitive.
Considering Tennessee’s difficulties in covering spreads in November against ranked opponents and the historical trend of road teams covering in this rivalry, this game has the makings of a close contest despite Tennessee’s home advantage.
Expect a game with a fast start by Tennessee, but Vanderbilt’s experience and offensive firepower will keep them within reach. The total points will likely surpass the set line due to both teams’ scoring tendencies.
Final Prediction
Tennessee Volunteers to win by a narrow margin, 28-24, in a high-scoring affair.
