USC vs Notre Dame prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The highly anticipated clash between the USC Trojans (5-1) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2) is set for October 18, 2025, at Notre Dame Stadium. The Irish enter this Week 8 showdown as a 9.5-point favorite, with the market expecting a high-scoring contest given the 60.5 over/under line. Both programs come in with strong motivations: USC aims to sustain momentum after a solid start, while Notre Dame seeks to extend its four-game win streak and assert dominance on home turf.

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Key Trends and Historical Context

• The favorite has prevailed in the last 12 USC-Notre Dame meetings, underscoring a pattern that favors the team expected to win.
• USC struggles notably on the road against FBS Independent opponents, losing their last seven in this category, which includes Notre Dame.
• Notre Dame has excelled in October as a favorite against ranked teams, covering the spread in seven of their last eight such games.
• USC has failed to cover in each of their recent five October road games, highlighting challenges in away environments late in the season.
• The Irish consistently perform well early in games, winning the first quarter in five of their last six Big Ten matchups and leading at halftime in eight of ten meetings under similar conditions.
• Both teams have a strong recent record in scoring; Notre Dame’s last five games against California teams have gone over, as have USC’s last four games against FBS Independents.

Statistical Insights and Player Matchups

• Jeremiyah Love (USC) is among the nation’s leading touchdown scorers, ranking second in FBS with 11 touchdowns, making him a critical offensive weapon for the Trojans.
• Bishop Fitzgerald of Notre Dame ties for first in FBS interceptions this season with 5, and the Irish collectively rank second in interceptions, emphasizing a formidable defense capable of creating turnovers.
• Notre Dame’s defense has a concerning vulnerability in the second quarter, ranking 132nd in opponent points allowed, which may open up opportunities for USC to capitalize and keep the game close at halftime.
• USC has recorded the joint-most home wins by double-digit margins this season and is the only FBS team to consistently score in every quarter — a testament to their offensive consistency and resilience.

Game Outlook

Notre Dame’s home advantage and positive trends as a favorite versus ranked opponents give them the edge despite recent struggles covering the spread against AP-ranked teams. The Fighting Irish’s ability to force turnovers and control the game’s opening phases should help lay the foundation for a successful outing.

USC’s reliable scoring threat in Jeremiyah Love and their resilience in every quarter will push Notre Dame defensively and could keep this contest competitive, particularly if they exploit the Irish’s second-quarter defensive weaknesses.

The projected high total points line suggests an open game favoring offensive production from both sides. However, Notre Dame’s home field advantage, combined with historical dominance over USC and better performance trends as favorites, positions them to win by at least a touchdown margin.

Prediction Summary

Notre Dame will leverage their home crowd, opportunistic defense, and strong October performance as a favorite to secure the victory. Expect a competitive battle where USC keeps close, but the Irish pull away late.

Final Prediction: Notre Dame -9.5, Over 60.5