UAB vs Navy prediction and analysis

Game Overview

On September 6, 2025, the UAB Blazers will travel to Annapolis to face the Navy Midshipmen at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Both squads enter this game undefeated at 1-0, but they come off vastly different trajectories from the previous season and their season-opening performances. The betting line gives Navy a hefty 21-point favorite status with an over/under sitting at 58.5, setting the stage for a potentially lopsided contest.

UAB Blazers: Strengths and Weaknesses

UAB’s 2024 campaign was disappointing, weathering a 3-9 overall record and a 2-6 mark in American Athletic Conference play under second-year coach Trent Dilfer. After losing six straight early, the Blazers managed a modest recovery but remain near the bottom of the conference. Their season opener in 2025 was high-scoring and exciting—a 52-42 victory over Alabama State showcasing offensive firepower but significant defensive vulnerabilities.

• Offense: Quarterback Jalen Kitna displayed efficiency (18-of-23, 247 yards, 2 TDs), complemented by Jevon Jackson’s dominant rushing (166 yards, 2 TDs) and Corri Milliner’s reliable receiving (98 yards, 1 TD).
• Defense: The Blazers struggled mightily, allowing 514 yards total with 202 on the ground and a woeful 7.9 yards per play, a major concern against Navy’s rushing attack.

Navy Midshipmen: Momentum and Matchup Advantages

Navy exploded in 2024, exceeding expectations with a 10-3 finish and a strong 6-2 conference record. They closed the season impressively with key victories including one over Army and a bowl win against Oklahoma. This form has continued into 2025 where they demolished VMI 52-7, underscoring their robust run-centric offense and stingy defense.

• Offense: The triple-option remains Navy’s bread and butter, highlighted by Braxton Woodson’s league-leading 25.7 yards per carry and dynamic presence (180 yards, 2 TDs) against VMI, backed by efficient passing from Blake Horvath.
• Defense: Navy’s defense ranks first nationally in limiting opponent points in both the first half and fourth quarter, demonstrating a disciplined and opportunistic approach to stymieing foes.

Key Factors in the Matchup

• UAB’s defense is susceptible with a poor ranking in yards allowed per game (130th), particularly vulnerable to ground attacks.
• Navy possesses one of the nation’s most effective rushing attacks and confounding triple-option scheme, likely dictating the tempo and draining clock time.
• UAB’s third-quarter performance has been strong so far, but surviving Navy’s physical ground game and locked-down defense will be a significant challenge.
• Time of possession and third-down efficiency heavily favor Navy, which was evident in their season opener.

Prediction Summary

Navy’s well-rounded team, backed by a dominant rushing attack and a suffocating defense, appears poised to control this game from start to finish. UAB’s offensive talents could put points on the board, but their defensive shortcomings likely will allow Navy to extend drives and create scoring opportunities consistently. Given Navy’s superior depth, momentum, and scheme advantages, the Midshipmen should win comfortably and cover the double-digit spread.

Final Prediction

Navy -21