Tulane vs UTSA prediction and analysis
Game Overview
On October 30, 2025, the Tulane Green Wave (6-1) will visit the UTSA Roadrunners (3-4) at the Alamodome in a pivotal American Athletic Conference matchup. The betting line currently favors Tulane with UTSA as a 3-point underdog, and the over/under is set at 55.5 points. Both teams bring contrasting recent form and trends which will play a crucial role in the outcome.
Recommended Sports Betting Sites
Key Factors and Trends
- Home Field Advantage and Conference Success: UTSA boasts an impressive 23-game winning streak against conference opponents at home, including covering the spread in their last seven conference games at Alamodome. This highlights their comfort and dominance on home turf.
- Tulane’s October Dominance: The Green Wave have won 12 consecutive games in October against non-AP-ranked teams and have covered the spread in five of their last six road games during this month, suggesting they perform well on the road in mid-season.
- Struggles Covering the Spread: Tulane has failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, while UTSA has similarly struggled, failing to cover in three of their last four contests overall. These trends indicate possible volatility in the betting line.
- Scoring and Points Breakdown: Both teams have seen recent games trending above the projected total points. UTSA’s last seven games at the Alamodome have all gone over the total line, and Tulane’s last five Thursday games against Texas teams have also surpassed the over/under, pointing toward a potentially high-scoring affair.
- Player Impact: Tulane’s Robert Henry leads the American Conference with 868 rushing yards, a significant threat on the ground. Additionally, kicker Patrick Durkin ranks tied for ninth among FBS players with 14 field goals this season, providing scoring stability.
- Defensive and Quarter Insights: UTSA’s defense has been vulnerable in the red zone, ranked 130th nationally by allowing 96% success rate, which Tulane could exploit. In contrast, UTSA performs well in the third quarter offensively, scoring 9.7 points per game (top 10 in FBS), while Tulane’s defense is tough in the second quarter but tends to give up more points after halftime.
Prediction Summary
This matchup features talented offenses and situational strengths that can swing momentum multiple times. Tulane’s rushing attack and efficiency in scoring, combined with UTSA’s strong home record, create an intriguing battle. Expect a high-scoring contest given the recent trends for overs, with Tulane’s consistent October performances on the road likely tipping the balance in their favor.
However, UTSA’s home-field energy and third-quarter offensive surge could keep the game close, making the 3-point spread tight. Bettors should consider the likelihood of surpassing the over/under based on these scoring patterns.
Final Prediction
Tulane to win narrowly, with a final score projection of 31-27. Tulane covers the 3-point spread, and the game goes over 55.5 points.
