Tulane vs South Alabama prediction and analysis

Game Overview

On September 6, 2025, the Tulane Green Wave will face off against the South Alabama Jaguars at Hancock Whitney Stadium. This Week 2 matchup features a Tulane team yet to open its season, while South Alabama comes in with a 1-0 record and momentum from a strong offensive and defensive start to the year. The Jaguars will be favored by 10 points, with an over/under set at 51.5, presenting intriguing betting angles on both sides.

Key Trends and Team Performance

• South Alabama’s home dominance: The Jaguars have won six of their last seven September home games and have a strong recent record against Louisiana teams, covering the spread in three of the last four such matchups.
• Tulane’s mixed spread record: Despite a solid overall program, Tulane has struggled to cover the spread recently, failing to do so in three of their last four games and in six of seven games as a road favorite.
• Underdog struggles: South Alabama has a tough time winning or covering the spread as an underdog, losing their last eight games in that role at home.
• Scoring trends: South Alabama’s games often go over the total points line, with seven of their last eight non-ranked home games exceeding expectations. Conversely, Tulane’s September favorites tend to play lower-scoring contests, with four of their last five such games going under.
• Defensive excellence for Tulane: Tulane currently ranks first nationally in limiting fourth-quarter opponent points and second-half opponent points this season, indicating a defense that tightens late in games.
• Offensive standouts: South Alabama leads FBS in red zone efficiency (100%) and ranks tenth in fourth-quarter scoring, signaling a potent offense in clutch moments. Tulane‘s QB Bishop Davenport and receiver Omari Hayes are among national leaders in passer rating and catch rate respectively, promising efficient execution for the Green Wave.

Matchup Analysis

South Alabama’s home-field advantage and recent success against Louisiana programs cannot be overlooked. Their red zone efficiency and late-game scoring proficiency suggest they’ll be tough in closing out drives. However, Tulane’s elite fourth-quarter defensive numbers and strong second-half containment may blunt the Jaguars’ late-game surge.

Tulane’s poor recent performance against the spread as a road favorite counters some of their defensive edge, but the quality of South Alabama’s opponent slate and favored status are factors to consider. Additionally, South Alabama’s underdog struggles at home complicate confidence in their ability to cover the 10-point spread despite being the home team.

Prediction Summary

Expect a closely contested game that tests both teams’ resilience and execution in pivotal moments. Tulane’s disciplined defense, combined with their offensive efficiency through Bishop Davenport and Omari Hayes, should keep them competitive throughout. South Alabama’s potent offense at home and superior red zone performance will push the game to a higher final score, but the Jaguars may fall slightly short of the double-digit favorite margin.

Final prediction: Tulane Green Wave win by a narrow margin, covering the spread. Look for the game to go over the total points line.