Tulane vs Ole Miss prediction and analysis

Game Overview

The Week 4 matchup between the Tulane Green Wave and the Ole Miss Rebels, both undefeated at 3-0, promises to be a clash of contrasting strengths. Scheduled for September 20, 2025, at 3:30 PM EDT at the Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, this game features a Rebels team favored by 11.5 points with an over/under set at 61.5. Both teams enter the contest with momentum, however, historical trends and current statistical advantages suggest that Ole Miss will continue to assert dominance at home.

Key Statistical and Trend Insights

• Ole Miss Dominance at Home: The Rebels boast an impressive streak, winning 14 straight non-conference games at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Additionally, they have covered the spread in their last seven such matchups, establishing their home turf as a stronghold.
• Tulane’s Struggles vs Ranked Opponents: Tulane has lost all five of their previous games against AP-ranked teams, which raises questions about their ability to rise to this challenge.
• Strong First-Half Performances by Ole Miss: Ole Miss has won the first quarter in their last nine games against non-conference opponents and the first half in each of their last 14 home non-conference games, indicating their ability to start fast and control the flow early.
• Tulane’s Positive September Form: The Green Wave has won four straight games in September, showing resilience and form, with three covers in four games against top-15 AP teams, which shows they can perform in big games.
• Offensive Efficiency and Turnover Factors: Tulane ranks first in the FBS in red zone efficiency at 100%, while Ole Miss is third in Q2 points per game (19.7) and boasts a perfect 4th down conversion rate on the season at 100%. Additionally, Tulane leads in interceptions with Javion White standing tied first in FBS with 3 picks, while Ole Miss is solid defensively and efficient offensively.
• High Scoring Expectations: Both teams have been involved in games that have gone over the point total line recently, with Ole Miss’ last four games and Tulane’s five of six recent September games going over, indicating an offensive shootout is likely.

Prediction Summary

While Tulane has proven their mettle in recent tough games and shown red zone efficiency, Ole Miss’s home dominance and ability to execute in critical moments provide them the edge. The Rebels’ perfect 4th down conversion rate and strong start to halves combined with their streak of winning non-conference home games paint a clear picture. Tulane has struggled versus ranked teams historically, which weighs heavily in this contest.

This game is expected to be fast-paced with a potential scoring shootout, but Ole Miss’s consistency and home advantage will likely propel them to a double-digit victory margin.

Final Prediction

Ole Miss to win comfortably, 31-17, covering the 11.5-point spread.