Troy vs Southern Mississippi prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The Week 14 showdown features the Troy Trojans traveling to face the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. Both teams are coming off solid performances — Troy snapping a two-game losing streak and Southern Miss securing back-to-back victories. This game promises to be a compelling contest influenced by home advantage, historical trends, and distinct team strengths.
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Key Factors Impacting the Game
- Home Field Impact: Southern Miss has been solid at home lately, winning four of their last five home games, which could provide them a crucial edge.
- Historical Trends: Southern Miss has struggled recently against Alabama teams, losing 12 of 13 such matchups. Yet, Troy boasts wins in three of its last four games as an underdog — highlighting their resilience.
- Spread and Half-time Performance: The favorite has covered the spread in four consecutive meetings between these teams. However, Troy has failed to cover in five of its last six November road games and has typically trailed at halftime in six of seven recent conference road games. Southern Miss has also often lost the first half at home in conference play.
- Defensive and Offensive Tendencies: Southern Miss ranks first in FBS for interceptions with 20 this season, showcasing a dangerous defense. Conversely, they rank near the bottom (126th) for time of possession, indicating a tendency for quick drives regardless of outcome. Troy’s offensive profile highlights a strong fourth quarter with a +4.9 average point differential but a sluggish start, placing them 124th in first quarter scoring.
- Player Matchups: QB Braylon Braxton has shown explosiveness with a 98-yard passing touchdown, while punter Evan Crenshaw’s 47.0-yard average is one of the best nationally, possibly impacting field position battles.
- Betting Trends and Totals: Southern Miss has struggled to cover spreads in November (8 of last 9 games), contrasting Troy’s successful covering against Mississippi teams (7 of last 8). Recent games have frequently exceeded total points lines (OVER occurred in 4 of last 5 games for both teams in relevant scenarios) suggesting a potentially high-scoring contest.
Prediction Summary
Troy’s ability to close games strongly in the fourth quarter could be a decisive factor against a Southern Miss defense that excels at creating turnovers but struggles with sustaining possession. Southern Miss’s home advantage is significant, but their inconsistent first-half performances and inability to cover spreads recently diminish confidence. Troy’s recent success as an underdog and advantage in covering against Mississippi teams suggests the Trojans can keep this game competitive and possibly win.
Final Prediction: Troy Trojans to win and cover the spread in a closely contested game, with an expected margin of victory around 3 to 7 points.
