Texas vs Ohio State prediction and analysis

Overview of the Matchup

The Texas Longhorns and the Ohio State Buckeyes will square off in a highly anticipated season opener on Saturday, August 30, 2025, at Ohio Stadium. Both teams enter this contest with zero wins and losses on the year, aiming to set the tone for their upcoming campaigns. The betting odds slightly favor Ohio State by 1.5 points, with the over/under set at 47.5 points. This game presents a compelling case given the recent history, rosters in transition, and coaching narratives.

Team Dynamics and Recent Form

• Texas Longhorns: After a stellar 2024 season finishing 13-3 and capturing first place in the SEC, Texas is eager to build on that momentum. Head coach Steve Sarkisian enters his fifth year with stability on both sides of the ball, retaining offensive coordinator Kyle Flood and defensive coordinator Pete Kwitkowski. However, the Longhorns face a significant challenge replacing 12 players from last season’s NFL Draft class. Despite the turnover, Texas’s roster remains highly competitive, though navigating their demanding schedule will require resilience and depth.
• Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes emerged as national champions in 2024 with a 14-2 record, capping a remarkable season that included wins over powerhouse programs and a strong display in the College Football Playoff. Ryan Day returns for his seventh season, supported by new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Ohio State will need to address notable roster changes following 14 players drafted into the NFL and larger personnel shifts due to transfers. Fortunately, several key players gained valuable experience last season, potentially easing the transition.

Key Trends and Betting Angles

• Ohio State boasts a six-game winning streak against AP top-10 teams and has consistently covered spreads as the favorite in high-stakes matchups.
• Texas, while competitive, has struggled to cover spreads against top-15 AP-ranked opponents, failing to do so in six of seven recent games.
• Historically, Texas performs well against non-conference opponents, holding six wins in the last seven such matchups.
• Ohio State has yet to cover the spread in their last four home openers, suggesting some vulnerability early in the season despite their pedigree.
• Scoring trends reveal recent Ohio State home non-conference games exceeding projected totals, contrasting with Texas’s tendency to play more conservatively underdog games going under the total.

Prediction Summary

This season opener between Texas and Ohio State is poised to be an intense, closely contested affair. Both teams face key challenges replacing significant talent lost to the NFL and transfers, but possess deep coaching experience and promising rosters. Ohio State’s recent dominance over ranked teams and advantageous home setting give them a slight edge, yet the Longhorns’ disciplined defense and ability to perform on the road keep this game in the balance.

The Buckeyes’ ability to assimilate new coaching influences and maintain their high-tempo offense will be critical, as will Texas’s game-plan execution to offset Ohio State’s physicality. Given Ohio State’s motivation to defend their national title and the familiarity with pressure moments, they likely have the resilience to eke out a narrow victory.

Final Prediction

Prediction: Ohio State 24, Texas 21 — Ohio State covers the 1.5-point spread.