Texas State vs Southern Mississippi prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The Week 12 showdown between the Texas State Bobcats and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles presents a compelling clash of teams heading in opposite directions. Southern Miss enters this contest riding a five-game winning streak while boasting a history of dominance as a favorite against Texas teams. Conversely, Texas State is struggling, having dropped five straight games and failing to gain traction on the road.
Recommended Sports Betting Sites
Key Betting Trends and Team Insights
- Southern Miss advantage as favorite: The Golden Eagles have won each of their last 11 contests as a favorite against Texas teams, showing strong situational dominance.
- Texas State road struggles: The Bobcats have lost their last four road games and consistently fail to cover the spread, missing out in seven consecutive attempts.
- Southern Miss covers at home: As a home favorite, Southern Miss has covered the spread in each of its last five outings, demonstrating reliability when playing on their turf.
- Strong defensive metrics for Southern Miss: They lead FBS in interceptions with 20 this season and hold opponents to just 3.3 points on average in the second quarter, highlighting their ability to stifle opposition scoring drives.
- Impact players: Josh Moten leads the FBS with 5 interceptions, serving as a ball-hawking defensive back for Southern Miss. Lincoln Pare has an impressive 100% catch rate among qualified players, showcasing reliable hands and efficiency in the passing game.
November Performance and Recent Trends
It is worth noting that Southern Miss has struggled in November historically, losing six of their last seven games in the month and failing to cover spreads in six of seven. On the other hand, Texas State tends to perform well as an underdog in November road games, covering six of seven such contests. This suggests the Bobcats may be particularly motivated to keep the game close.
Game Dynamics: Scoring and Defensive Outlook
- Both teams’ recent games have leaned towards the over on total points, with Texas State’s last seven games in November going over and Southern Miss’s last four home games also finishing over.
- Southern Miss shows a pattern of commanding the first half in conference games, having won the first half of their last five such contests, potentially signaling strong starts.
- Texas State’s narrow road losses by five points or less emphasize a team that keeps games competitive despite shortcomings.
Prediction Summary
Given Southern Miss’s defensive prowess, favorable home spread record, and momentum of a five-game winning streak, they enter as strong favorites. However, Texas State’s resilience as November underdogs and their history of close losses suggest this won’t be a blowout. Expect a competitive game where Southern Miss pulls away late due to turnovers and efficient defensive stops.
Final Prediction
Southern Miss Golden Eagles to win by 10-14 points.
