Tennessee-Martin vs Oklahoma State prediction and analysis

Game Overview

On Thursday, August 28, 2025, the UT Martin Skyhawks will take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Sutter Health Park in a non-conference showdown that pits an emerging FCS contender against a retooling Big 12 program. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM EDT, and the Cowboys enter as hefty favorites with a 17.5-point spread. However, the matchup promises to be more intriguing than the odds may suggest.

UT Martin Skyhawks Preview

• Recent Success: The Skyhawks had a strong 2024 campaign, winning nine games and advancing to the second round of the FCS playoffs. They remained a nationally ranked team for much of last season.
• Coaching Stability: Head coach Jason Simpson is entering his 20th season, providing continuity and a stable program culture.
• Offensive Outlook: Despite losing key talent, the Skyhawks return an experienced offensive line that was among the top 50 in rushing nationally. Transfer quarterback Jase Bauer (from Sam Houston) is expected to start, supported by transfers including receiver Phaizon Wilson and running back John Gentry.
• Defensive Strength: Defense remains UT Martin’s strong suit, led by standout players such as corner JaMichael McGoy, safety Jacob Stevenson, and linebacker Keyshawn Johnson. This unit was among the best nationally last year but will need to overcome the loss of some key contributors.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Preview

• Recent Struggles: The Cowboys endured a disappointing 2024 season with only three wins, missing a bowl for the first time in nearly two decades.
• Roster Turnover: Oklahoma State returns just four starters and has new coordinators on both offense and defense, resulting in considerable uncertainty, particularly at quarterback with no proven starter.
• Transfers and Additions: The Cowboys added notable transfers such as receiver Terrill Davis and defensive talents Kyran Duhon and Bryan McCoy, but it remains to be seen how quickly these players integrate.
• Home Opener History: Oklahoma State boasts a 10-game winning streak in home openers, yet has struggled to cover spreads and perform consistently against unranked teams.

Key Factors to Watch

• Quarterback Play: UT Martin’s Jase Bauer has experience in FCS competition, whereas Oklahoma State’s quarterback situation is unsettled with no proven starter.
• Defense and Line Play: UT Martin’s defense continues to be a strength, especially against the run, while Oklahoma State’s offensive line remains a question mark.
• Motivation & Schedule: Oklahoma State’s looming matchup against Oregon may cause this game to be a “look-ahead” spot, potentially impacting their intensity.

Prediction Summary

While Oklahoma State is favored heavily based on program reputation and home advantage, the Cowboys are a team in transition with a young roster and multiple new coaches. UT Martin, coming off a strong FCS season and with experienced leadership, possesses the defensive prowess and stable coaching necessary to keep this game competitive. The Skyhawks have meaningful talent additions and are no strangers to rising to challenges.

Expect this contest to be closer than anticipated, with UT Martin covering the nearly three-touchdown spread due to Oklahoma State’s offensive uncertainty and potential motivational dip. High energy from UT Martin’s defense and a poised performance by their transfer quarterback could well disrupt the Cowboys’ rhythm.

Final Prediction

Prediction: UT Martin Skyhawks +17.5