Tennessee-Martin vs Missouri State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The UT-Martin Skyhawks are set to take on the Missouri State Bears on the evening of September 20, 2025. The Bears, holding a 1-2 record, will host the Skyhawks who are currently 5-5-7. Missouri State enters this game favored by 13.5 points with an over/under set at 52.5. This contest provides an intriguing opportunity to see if UT-Martin can claim a signature road upset against a Missouri State team that has struggled to find consistency.
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Key Factors Influencing the Game
- Missouri State’s Defensive Struggles: The Bears have been vulnerable in the first halves this season, losing the first half in each of their last three non-conference games. Statistically, they rank 136th in opponent points allowed per game in both the second quarter (19.7) and first half (24.3) nationally among FBS teams. This suggests the Skyhawks could capitalize early on offense.
- UT-Martin’s Defensive Playmakers: Jordan Dunbar leads Conference USA in forced fumbles with one this season. His playmaking ability may be key for the Skyhawks to disrupt Missouri State’s offensive rhythm and create turnovers that could swing momentum.
- Missouri State’s Inconsistency: The Bears have alternated wins and losses in their last three games, indicating a lack of steadiness. This inconsistency might work against them in a crucial home game where they are expected to post a commanding performance.
- Offensive and Special Teams: With the game total at 52.5, both offenses will need to perform efficiently. The Skyhawks’ ability to force turnovers combined with Missouri State’s potential to give up points early may push this game toward a high-scoring affair despite the defensive concerns.
Prediction Summary
Given Missouri State’s defensive difficulties early in games and inconsistency overall, combined with UT-Martin’s opportunistic defense, the Skyhawks have a solid chance to keep this game competitive. While Missouri State should leverage home-field advantage and the talent gap reflected in the spread, UT-Martin’s disruption on defense might limit the Bears’ scoring, particularly in the first half.
Expect a close game in the first half with Missouri State likely pulling away late, but not easily covering the spread. The total score will depend on how well offenses exploit the defenses early and whether turnovers dictate momentum.
Final Prediction
Missouri State wins 31-23, but fails to cover the 13.5-point spread. A bet on UT-Martin +13.5 offers value in this matchup.
