Stony Brook vs San Diego State prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

On August 28, 2025, the Stony Brook Seawolves will visit the San Diego State Aztecs at Snapdragon Stadium for the opening game of the college football season. San Diego State enters as a heavy favorite with a 16-point spread, yet the fight to start the 2025 campaign strong will be intense for both teams. While San Diego State is still shaking off a difficult 2024 and an extensive roster turnover, Stony Brook looks to build on its surprising resurgence under second-year head coach Billy Cosh.

Stony Brook Seawolves Analysis

Stony Brook’s 2024 season was a remarkable turnaround after a winless 2023 and a coaching change. The Seawolves posted an 8-4 record, showing resilience and solid team growth. They return several key contributors, including RB Roland Dempster, kicker Enda Kirby, and some veteran offensive linemen, which bodes well for their ability to sustain offensive production. However, quarterback remains an unknown factor given the departure of last year’s starters, making early-season offensive consistency a potential concern.

Defensively, Stony Brook’s vulnerabilities were exposed in losses where they allowed 30-plus points. The Seawolves must tighten their defense to stay competitive, especially facing a still talented San Diego State team. Coaching continuity with Billy Cosh and his staff should reinforce the systems in place.

San Diego State Aztecs Analysis

The Aztecs endured a disappointing 3-9 record in 2024, including a brutal six-game losing streak to close the season. The transition to a new defensive coordinator and quarterback changes contributes to uncertainty. Despite these challenges, San Diego State boasts a strong home winning tradition against non-FBS foes and will want to start their farewell Mountain West campaign on the right foot ahead of their 2026 move to the Pac-12.

However, the Aztecs’ recent patterns against non-conference and lower-tier teams suggest struggles to cover lines and generate high-scoring games. The offense’s cohesion is a question mark after significant personnel changes, making their unit hard to predict early on.

Key Factors to Watch

• Quarterback play: Both teams face questions at QB with roster shakeups, which could slow offensive rhythm.
• San Diego State’s home field advantage: The Aztecs have a strong home win record versus non-FBS teams but struggle with consistency against unranked opponents.
• Stony Brook’s defensive improvements: If Stony Brook can limit San Diego State’s opportunities, they can keep this game competitive.
• Coaching continuity: Both teams are entering their second seasons under respective head coaches, which should favor game preparation.

Prediction Summary

While San Diego State is favored heavily on the spread, numerous factors suggest this game has potential to be tighter than expected. Stony Brook’s positive momentum and improved program culture under Billy Cosh, combined with San Diego State’s recent struggles and roster instability, indicate the Seawolves can keep the game close, especially early in the season. The Aztecs will rely heavily on their home crowd advantage and experience, but offensive uncertainties on both sides likely prevent a blowout.

Expect a competitive opening half with Stony Brook showcasing their offensive weapons. San Diego State’s depth and talent should ultimately prevail, but the Seawolves are worth considering against the sizeable spread.

Final Prediction

Prediction: San Diego State to win by 10-12 points, but consider Stony Brook on the spread (+16) as a solid value bet.