St. Francis (PA) vs UL Monroe prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

On August 28, 2025, the UL Monroe Warhawks will host the Saint Francis Red Flash at JPS Field at Malone Stadium for their first-ever meeting. UL Monroe enters this season opener as significant favorites, with a -23.5 point spread and a total points line set at 45.5. Both teams struggled last season, but the Warhawks were notably more competitive inside the Sun Belt Conference and hold a clear advantage in multiple facets.

Team Analysis

UL Monroe Warhawks

• Previous Season Record: 5-7 overall, 3-5 in the Sun Belt; strong home performance with a 4-2 record.
• Offense: Averaged 21 points per game, leaning on a balanced attack that produced roughly 170 rushing and 135 passing yards per contest.
• Key Players: QB Aidan Armenta accounted for over 1,200 yards and showed dual threat ability despite a near 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ahmad Hardy energized the ground game with 1,351 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.
• Defense: Allowed about 29 points per game, with standout linebacker Wydett Williams Jr. leading the team in total tackles and providing playmaking ability in the secondary.
• Trends: UL Monroe has a solid history against non-conference foes at home, winning their last seven and covering the spread in five of six such games.

Saint Francis Red Flash

• Previous Season Record: 4-7 overall and 2-4 in the NEC, finishing sixth in their conference.
• Offense: Less productive scoring just 17.6 points per game with a modest attack combining 124 rushing and 159 passing yards.
• Key Players: Quarterback Nick Whitfield Jr. threw for over 1,000 yards but with modest efficiency. Leading rusher DeMarcus McElroy was limited to 657 yards, while receiver Gavin Thomson was the offense’s primary target with 727 yards.
• Defense: Struggled mightily, conceding an average of 37.2 points per game and allowing over 83 rushing yards per contest, highlighting significant vulnerabilities.

Key Matchup and Predictions

UL Monroe’s defensive stability contrasts starkly with Saint Francis’s porous defense, setting up a scenario where the Warhawks can impose their balanced offensive attack. Despite UL Monroe’s recent ongoing six-game losing streak, their ability to dominate home non-conference matchups is noteworthy and should not be underestimated, especially against a team that struggled to hold opponents to single-digit scores last year.

The Red Flash’s offensive limitations and defensive liabilities make it unlikely they can slow down or keep pace with UL Monroe’s attack. The Warhawks possess a more proven rushing game and a quarterback with experience managing drives and avoiding big mistakes. Additionally, UL Monroe’s red zone efficiency, ranked fifth nationally last year, implies they can capitalize on opportunities.

While the line is substantial at -23.5, UL Monroe’s historical home dominance and superior talent across the board support a comfortable victory margin, even if the offense may not explode for a massive score. The game’s total points line of 45.5 aligns with both teams’ tendencies towards moderate scoring and periods of defensive control.

Prediction Summary

Considering UL Monroe’s balanced offensive production, defensive steadiness, and strong home game performances versus non-conference foes, they should handle Saint Francis convincingly. Saint Francis’s defensive struggles and limited offensive output make covering the large spread unlikely for them.

Final Prediction

UL Monroe to win comfortably, covering the -23.5 point spread. Expect a final score roughly in the range of UL Monroe 31, Saint Francis 10.