Southern Miss vs South Alabama prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles head to Hancock Whitney Stadium to face the South Alabama Jaguars in a critical Sun Belt Conference showdown. Both teams have had uneven performances recently, making this game pivotal for momentum and positioning as the season approaches its climax.
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Southern Miss Golden Eagles Strengths and Weaknesses
- Rushing Offense: Southern Miss boasts a solid ground attack, averaging 150.8 rushing yards per game. Jeffery Pittman is the featured back with 548 yards and seven touchdowns, giving the Eagles a reliable rushing threat.
- Defense: The Eagles are allowing 25.9 points and 395 yards per game on defense — reflective of some vulnerabilities. However, they have standout defenders including Chris Jones (106 tackles), J’Mond Tapp (5.5 sacks), and Josh Moten (5 interceptions), suggesting playmakers exist to disrupt the Jaguars’ offense.
- Playing on the Road: Southern Miss has been inconsistent on the road, especially in Alabama, having lost seven of their last eight trips. Yet, the Eagles have won five of their last six games overall and have a positive record as road favorites in November, managing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 such games.
South Alabama Jaguars Key Factors
- Home Field Trends: South Alabama has been a resilient underdog at home recently, covering the spread in six of their last seven games at Hancock Whitney Stadium and winning the last three as underdogs. However, they have struggled to win outright in Alabama lately, losing their last six home games.
- Offensive Production: Standouts include Kentrel Bullock, ranking 14th nationally in rushing attempts, and Braylon Braxton, who has a big-play passing ability as evidenced by a 98-yard touchdown pass this season.
- Quarterback and Scoring Issues: South Alabama’s offense has been stagnant in the second quarter, ranking near the bottom among FBS teams in Q2 scoring (5.1 points per game). Defensively they have also allowed early points, indicating struggles in starting strong.
- Scoring Trends and Totals: Most of South Alabama’s recent home games have gone over the total points line, reflecting a more open, high-scoring game plan or defensive lapses.
Game Dynamics and Trends
Historically, Southern Miss has fared well in November and against teams outside of the AP rankings, with a tendency to hit the under on total points in such matchups. The Jaguars look to leverage recent home underdog successes but must overcome their inability to close out wins in Alabama.
Additionally, Southern Miss’s low time of possession (28:10 per game) may play a role against a South Alabama team that struggles to maintain sustained drives, particularly in the second quarter. This matchup could potentially be a grind-it-out battle dominated by rushing and defensive stops.
Prediction Summary
Given Southern Miss’s stronger rushing attack, key defensive playmakers, and recent successful road performances in November, they appear better equipped to handle the challenges posed by South Alabama. The Jaguars’ home underdog cover trends are notable but do not offset their lack of recent home victories and offensive inconsistencies.
Expect a close, hard-fought game with Southern Miss edging out a narrow road victory, likely keeping the final score under the total points line.
Final Prediction
Southern Miss Golden Eagles to win by a touchdown or less, with the game potentially going under total points.
