Southeast Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The 2025 college football season kicks off with an intriguing contest as the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks travel to face the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Sutter Health Park on August 30. Both teams enter this opener with high hopes but face distinct challenges and opportunities as they seek to start their campaigns with a victory.

Team Analysis: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks

Coming off a 9-win season under veteran coach Tom Matukewicz, Southeast Missouri State must navigate significant changes heading into 2025. The loss of star quarterback Paxton DeLaurent, who threw for 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns last year, leaves a big void under center. Although the offense retains strong playmakers like running back Payton Brown and receivers Cam Pedro and Donnie Cheers, questions remain about the new quarterback’s ability to replicate DeLaurent’s production.

Defensively, the Redhawks also face turnover atop their stat sheets. Losing their top three tacklers means the responsibility shifts to returning players such as McCoy Casey, who led the team with five sacks, and defensive standouts Nasim Cairo and Jeremy Walton. While there is talent on defense, the unit might experience growing pains as younger players step into larger roles.

Team Analysis: Arkansas State Red Wolves

Coach Butch Jones leads a Red Wolves team that earned its first winning season since 2019 last year, finishing with eight victories. Stability at quarterback is a major asset, with Jaylen Raynor returning for his third season. Raynor’s impressive 5,300-yard and 33-touchdown career passing numbers, combined with a receiving corps led by 1,000-yard man Corey Rucker and new addition JJ Harrell (transfer from Mississippi State), bolster an already potent aerial attack. On the ground, rusher Ja’Quez Cross has demonstrated consistent efficiency, averaging 5.6 yards per carry over the past two seasons.

The offensive line, anchored by Makilan Thomas and Jacob Bayer, is considered one of the best in the Sun Belt, promising effective protection and run blocking. Defensively, while Arkansas State has lost significant production and integrated several transfers including cornerback Avante Dickerson and defensive talents from Marshall and Michigan State, new coordinator Griff McCarley faces the challenge of blending these pieces into a cohesive unit early in the season.

Key Matchup Factors

• Quarterback Experience: Arkansas State has a clear advantage with Jaylen Raynor’s proven track record versus Southeast Missouri State’s under-experienced signal caller stepping into big shoes.
• Offensive Line and Running Game: Arkansas State’s top-tier offensive line should give their offense a balanced attack and control time of possession.
• Defensive Transition: Both teams face turnover in key defensive players, but Arkansas State’s infusion of transfers could take time to gel.
• Home Field Advantage: Arkansas State historically handles non-FBS opponents well at home, having won its last eight home games against such teams.

Prediction Summary

Southeast Missouri State possesses talent but the uncertainty at quarterback and a possibly unsettled defense place them at a disadvantage against a balanced and more experienced Arkansas State squad. The Red Wolves’ ability to control the line of scrimmage and leverage Raynor’s playmaking upside should allow them to build an early lead and maintain control throughout. While the defense is a question mark, Arkansas State’s offensive strengths and home-field comfort justify laying the double-digit spread.

Final Prediction: Arkansas State to win convincingly and cover the -10.5 point spread.