San José State vs Wyoming prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

On October 11, 2025, the San José State Spartans (2-3) will face the Wyoming Cowboys (2-3) in a Mountain West Conference clash that pits two teams of similar records and recent struggles against one another. This game is set for a 7:00 PM EDT kickoff, with Wyoming slightly favored at +1.5 and the over/under at 48.5 points.

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Key Trends and Context

• Home Field Advantage: San José State has lost 5 of their last 6 road games, while the home team has won the last four of San José State’s contests. Wyoming, hosting this game, typically performs better at home despite some recent struggles.
• Spread Trends: Wyoming has covered the spread in their last five games as favorites, suggesting they perform well when expected to win. Conversely, San José State has struggled to cover the spread in conference games, failing to do so in six of seven.
• October Performance: Wyoming has lost its last nine October games as an underdog against non-ranked opponents, indicating vulnerability this month when not favored. San José State has a strong recent record in October as a favorite, going 16-1, though they are underdogs here.
• First Half Trends: San José State tends to come out strong, winning the first quarter in 4 of their last 5 conference contests. Wyoming, on the other hand, has lost the first half in 4 of their last 5 home conference games.
• Points Scored and Defense: Wyoming ranks near the bottom nationally in points scored during the first half (H1 PPG at 5.2) and struggles to convert crucial fourth downs (T134th), highlighting offensive inefficiencies that San José State may exploit.
• Player Standouts: Danny Scudero of Wyoming leads all FBS players in receiving yards (665), making him a key weapon. Meanwhile, Desman Hearns from Wyoming tops the Mountain West with two forced fumbles, evidencing defensive playmaking potential.

Over/Under Insight

The trend with total points is somewhat conflicting: Wyoming’s recent games have predominantly gone under the total points line, with 7 of their last 8 games finishing under, while San José State’s recent contests against non-AP-ranked teams have mostly gone over the total line, 5 of 6. This suggests a potentially moderate scoring game that could go either way, but probably not a shootout.

Additional Analytical Considerations

• Wyoming’s poor fourth-down conversion rate and slow starts could allow San José State to build early leads, continuing their trend of first-quarter dominance.
• San José State’s difficulty in covering spreads in conference games should be considered, but as favorites in October previously, they tend to rise to the occasion.
• Wyoming’s recent inability to cover the spread vs California teams (10 of last 12 failures) is another factor pointing against them despite being at home.
• The tight average margins in San José State’s home wins this season confirm their capability in close games, translating potentially into a strong competitive showing on the road.

Prediction Summary

Considering these factors, the edge goes to San José State based on their October form, strong first-quarter starts, and Wyoming’s offensive struggles and overall poor October underdog performance. While Wyoming has home field, the Spartans’ ability to start fast and exploit defensive lapses should keep them competitive and possibly pull an upset or a close win.

Final Prediction: San José State to win narrowly, 24-21. Expect a closely contested game with moderate scoring and a strong defensive effort from both sides.