San José State vs Texas prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The San José State Spartans travel to face the Texas Longhorns on Saturday, September 6, 2025, at Huntington Bank Stadium. Both teams enter this Week 2 contest with 0-1 records, each coming off narrow defeats in their openers. Texas is a commanding 36.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 51.5 points.

Team Analysis

Texas Longhorns

• Season Opener: Texas fell 7-14 on the road against Ohio State, struggling to move the ball effectively and managing just 203 total yards.
• Offense: Quarterback Arch Manning showed flashes with 170 passing yards and a touchdown but threw an interception. The ground game was limited, generating only 77 rushing yards.
• Defense: Texas held Ohio State to 14 points, but its offense’s inefficiency put pressure on their defense. The Longhorns’ defense has been stingy in quarters 1 and 3 this season, allowing zero opponent points.
• Trends: Texas boasts a perfect 20-0 record versus non-AP-ranked teams and has covered the spread in their last six games as a top 10 AP-ranked team. Recently, Texas has also tended to start strong, winning first quarters and first halves consistently, especially at home versus non-conference foes.

San José State Spartans

• Season Opener: San José State suffered a close 14-16 loss at home to Central Michigan but outgained them in total yards.
• Offense: QB Walker Eget threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns but was marred by two interceptions. Wide receiver Danny Scudero had a standout performance with 189 receiving yards.
• Defense: Spartans’ defense has been solid in the third quarter, not allowing points so far this season but has conceded enough overall to lose opening contests.
• Trends: San José State struggles against ranked teams, having lost 12 straight times. Although they’ve covered the spread in their last five non-conference road games, their overall penalty issues and inconsistency have been problematic.

Key Factors and Historical Context

• Texas dominated their only prior meeting in 2017 with a 56-0 shutout and covered a similar big spread.
• Both squads have shown defensive resilience but offensive struggles, which suggests a potential low-scoring affair despite the large spread.
• Texas’ strength in special situations (e.g., first quarters, first halves) combined with home-field advantage suggest they will dictate the game’s tempo early.
• San José State’s ability to cover spreads on the road points to them possibly keeping the margin somewhat respectable.
• The total points have tended to go under in recent openers for both teams, making the under an attractive side at 51.5 points.

Prediction Summary

Despite Texas being heavily favored and having the talent edge, especially at home, the Spartans have shown fight and could keep the score under the projected total. Texas should secure a solid win but may not cover the wide 36.5-point spread against a motivated San José State team that is likely to stay competitive for parts of the game.

Final Prediction: Texas to win, but San José State to cover at +36.5. Take the under 51.5 points.