San Diego State vs Washington State prediction and analysis

San Diego State vs. Washington State Preview

On Saturday night, the San Diego State Aztecs travel to face the Washington State Cougars at Martin Stadium in a compelling Pac-12 vs. Mountain West non-conference battle. Both teams enter Week 2 with undefeated records (1-0), seeking to build momentum early in the season. The betting line favors Washington State by 1.5 points, with an over/under set around 45.5 points.

Key Factors Affecting the Matchup

• San Diego State Offense: The Aztecs lean heavily on their ground game, averaging a robust 228 rushing yards per game, led by Lucky Sutton who has already scored twice. Quarterback Jayden Denegal’s passing completion sits just above 50%, showing limited but efficient production through the air.
• Washington State Offense: The Cougars’ aerial attack is more efficient, with quarterback Jaxon Potter completing nearly 77% of his passes. However, their rushing offense appears severely anemic, averaging only 3 yards on the ground last week, which raises concern about their ability to balance their attack against a stout Aztecs defense.
• Defense: Both defenses have shown dominance in certain quarters—San Diego State has allowed zero points and minimal yards in some quarters, while Washington State also ranks highly in limiting opponent scoring in early periods. However, the Aztecs’ defense has excelled at controlling the line of scrimmage, which could stifle Washington State’s struggling rushing game.
• Historical Trends and Venue: Washington State boasts a strong record at home against non-conference foes but has struggled in recent years to cover as favorites. Meanwhile, San Diego State has a troubling track record versus Pac-12 teams but has the toughness to keep the game close.

Why San Diego State Could Cover or Win Outright

Despite the slight favoritism toward Washington State, there are several reasons to believe San Diego State could exceed expectations in this matchup:

• The Aztecs’ run-heavy offense contrasts sharply with Washington State’s near non-existent ground attack, suggesting San Diego State can control the clock and the physical aspects of the game.
• Washington State’s recent inability to cover the spread as favorites, combined with uneven performances against lesser opponents, points to vulnerabilities.
• The Aztecs’ defense is well-prepared to contain the Cougars’ passing game, especially if Washington State’s run game continues to falter, forcing them into predictable downs.

Prediction Summary

The line’s slim margin underscores the closeness of this contest. While Washington State’s home advantage and efficient passing offense are strengths, their lack of a credible rushing attack might be their undoing against a disciplined and physical San Diego State team. Given the Cougars’ tendency to struggle as favorites and the Aztecs’ ability to dominate on the ground and defensively in key quarters, this game should be tightly contested, potentially decided in the trenches.

Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair where San Diego State stays competitive throughout and covers the spread. An outright Aztecs upset is plausible if Washington State cannot improve its run game and starts turning the ball over or punting frequently.

Final Prediction

San Diego State +1.5