San Diego State vs Northern Illinois prediction and analysis
San Diego State Aztecs vs Northern Illinois Huskies Preview
The San Diego State Aztecs (2-1) travel to face the Northern Illinois Huskies (1-2) on September 27, 2025, at 3:30 PM EDT. This Mountain West versus Mid-American Conference matchup pits a strong defensive squad against a struggling Huskies offense at Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium.
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Recent Team Performance
- San Diego State: The Aztecs enter this game fresh off a dominant shutout against Cal, highlighting their defensive prowess. However, their road struggles loom large, having lost their last seven September road games. Despite good red zone efficiency, offensive production has been moderate.
- Northern Illinois: The Huskies have dropped back-to-back games and are averaging a low 12.7 points per game, ranking 135th among FBS teams. Their offense is limited, and they have struggled to cover spreads at home, failing to do so in their last six home games.
Key Betting Trends
- The home team has won five of the last six meetings involving San Diego State.
- Underdogs have covered the spread in Northern Illinois’ last four home games.
- San Diego State has struggled to cover as favorites in September, missing 16 of their last 20 opportunities.
- Northern Illinois has lost every September game against unranked opponents in recent history.
- This matchup historically goes over the total points line, as both teams’ recent games often exceed 43.5 points.
Player and Statistical Matchups
San Diego State boasts a red zone scoring rate of 100%, making them highly efficient when in scoring position. However, their yardage metrics have been modest, ranking near the bottom nationally in first downs. Northern Illinois has one touchdown leader, Chavon Wright, but overall offensive struggles limit their scoring potential.
Defensively, San Diego State’s Chris Johnson has forced the conference-leading forced fumbles this season, emphasizing their ability to create turnovers. Northern Illinois’s defense hasn’t been enough to compensate for offensive shortcomings.
Prediction Summary
Considering San Diego State’s stout defense and red zone conversion, combined with Northern Illinois’ offensive woes and tendency to lose at home, the Aztecs should be able to secure a victory despite their recent road challenges. The game is likely to be moderately high scoring given both teams have recently gone over totals, but San Diego State has the tools to pull ahead in the second half after early adjustments.
Final Prediction
San Diego State Aztecs to win, covering the spread (-2.5), with a final score projection near 27-17.
