Rice vs UTSA prediction and analysis

Game Overview

On October 11, 2025, the Rice Owls (3-3) travel to face the UTSA Roadrunners (2-3) at the Alamodome in a pivotal Week 7 Conference USA matchup. UTSA holds a significant home-field advantage with a historical dominance at the Alamodome, including a current 22-game home winning streak against conference foes. Rice, meanwhile, is looking to bounce back after consecutive losses, while UTSA seeks to rebound from a snapped two-game winning streak.

Recommended Sports Betting Sites

Key Team and Player Insights

• Rice Owls: The Owls have struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom nationally in passing yards (93.2 yards per game), and have shown difficulty in the red zone, conceding touchdowns on 100% of opponents’ attempts. Despite this, Chase Jenkins leads with 4 touchdowns this season, underpinning Rice’s primary offensive threat.
• UTSA Roadrunners: UTSA’s offense is led by Robert Henry, tied for second nationally with 9 touchdowns this season, showcasing a dynamic scoring capability. However, defensively, UTSA allows substantial points in the second half, ranking near the bottom nationally in opponent points per third quarter (11.8) and second half (20.4) per game. This defensive vulnerability could be exploitable.

Betting Trends and Historical Context

• UTSA’s home dominance in conference play is notable with a 22-game win streak, and the team has covered the spread in the last 6 home conference games, suggesting strong performance as favorites at home.
• Rice has experienced recent struggles at the Alamodome, failing to cover the spread in 4 of its last 5 appearances, and losing the first half in 5 of the last 6 road conference games, indicating a slow start on the road.
• Interestingly, while UTSA has a strong home record, it has faltered as a favorite in October, missing the spread in 4 of the last 5 games during this month.
• Games involving UTSA in Texas have tended to go over the total points line recently, whereas Rice’s road games as underdogs typically trend under, suggesting a potential clash of pace and style.

Prediction Summary

This game presents a contrast between UTSA’s explosive offensive leader and stingy home record, set against Rice’s underdog resilience despite offensive inefficiencies. While UTSA’s defense has shown cracks late in games, the Owls’ limited passing attack may struggle to capitalize fully. Rice’s trend of road underdog covers is a compelling angle but may fall short against UTSA’s home-field firepower and Robert Henry’s scoring prowess.

Expect UTSA to control the early game pace, leveraging their historical first quarter success and strong opening halves. Rice’s struggles to gain early momentum on the road and in the red zone point toward a challenging night for the Owls.

Given the contrast in trends, the Roadrunners should secure a comfortable home victory, though the predicted margin may be less than the 12.5-point spread due to UTSA’s inconsistent October favorite performances.

Final Prediction

Prediction: UTSA Roadrunners win by 9 points (under the 12.5-point spread)