Purdue vs Michigan prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The Purdue Boilermakers (2-6) visit the Michigan Wolverines (6-2) on November 1, 2025, in what appears to be a challenging matchup for Purdue. Michigan is heavily favored with a -21 point line, and an over/under set at 50 points. This game pits a struggling Purdue team against a dominant Michigan squad at home, setting the stage for a decisive contest.

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Key Factors and Team Trends

• Purdue’s Road Struggles: The Boilermakers have lost 13 consecutive road games, reflecting their difficulties playing away from home and providing a significant advantage to Michigan on their turf.
• Michigan’s Dominance vs Non-Top-Ranked Opponents: Michigan has won 41 of their last 43 games against non-AP-ranked teams, demonstrating their consistent superiority against teams outside the top tier.
• Spread Trends: Purdue has failed to cover as an underdog against AP-ranked teams in their last six attempts, while Michigan’s home team advantage has helped them cover the spread in their last three home games.
• Recent Offensive/Defensive Form: The game trends suggest a high-scoring affair as each of Purdue’s last four games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams have gone over the total line, and Michigan’s November home games have also tended to go over.
• Statistical Matchups:
  • Michigan excels defensively, ranking 14th in FBS for second-half opponent points per game (7.5), limiting teams’ ability to rally late.
  • The Wolverines’ rushing attack is potent, ranking 15th nationally at 220.1 yards per game, likely to control the clock and tempo.
  • Purdue faces significant offensive challenges, ranking in the bottom tier (T127th) in red zone efficiency (73.3%) and (T126th) in interceptions, limiting their scoring opportunities and turnover creation.

Prediction Summary

Given Michigan’s home dominance, impressive defensive metrics, and Purdue’s consistent struggles on the road and offensively, the Wolverines are poised to control this game from start to finish. The Boilermakers’ inability to convert in crucial moments and protect the football will be exploited by Michigan’s strong defensive front. Expect Michigan’s rushing attack to wear down Purdue’s defense and build a comfortable lead early on.

Furthermore, the historical trends of these teams covering spreads and game totals align with a confident Michigan cover and an over on the total points. The betting line at -21 seems justified given Michigan’s current form and Purdue’s ongoing woes.

Final Prediction

Michigan victory with a margin covering the 21-point spread; expect a final score near 38-14.