Ole Miss vs Mississippi State prediction and analysis

Matchup Overview

The upcoming game between Ole Miss Rebels and Mississippi State Bulldogs presents an intriguing in-state rivalry matchup with significant betting implications. Both teams have shown contrasting trends in recent performances and historical patterns, particularly inside Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State’s home turf.

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Key Betting Trends and Historical Context

• Ole Miss Gambling Trends: Ole Miss has been a strong underdog performer at Mississippi State’s home field, winning three of their last four games there. Interestingly, the Rebels have struggled to cover the spread in November games when favored against non-ranked teams, failing 10 of 12 times.
• Mississippi State Home Performance: The Bulldogs have covered the spread in five of their last six home games but are hampered by a significant losing streak against SEC opponents at home, with 12 straight defeats. This indicates a troubling pattern in conference play despite local support.
• Against Ranked Teams and Conference Opposition: Mississippi State has struggled as home favorites against top-10 AP-ranked teams, failing to cover in all six such attempts. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has won its last 10 games versus non-AP-ranked foes, showing consistency against mid-tier teams.
• Spread and Scoring Patterns: The road team, particularly Ole Miss, has covered the spread in three of the last four meetings. Of note, the first half tends to belong to Ole Miss, as Mississippi State has lost the first half in 10 of their last 12 home conference games. Furthermore, offensive output tends to be on the lower side with the last eight November games meeting the under on total points.

Statistical Insights

• Punting and Special Teams: Ole Miss’ Ethan Pulliam leads the SEC in gross punting average (48.1 yards), a crucial factor in field position battles.
• Key Offensive Weapon: Kewan Lacy ranks third nationally in touchdowns (19), making him a focal point of Ole Miss’ attacking arsenal.
• Mississippi State First Quarter Prowess: The Bulldogs rank eleventh in FBS for first-quarter points per game (9.4) and fourteenth for average point differential (+5.5), suggesting strong early game intensity.
• Ole Miss Total Offense: The Rebels are a top-tier offensive team, ranking third nationally in total yards per game (493.8) and fifth in passing yards per game (305.1), highlighting their ability to generate explosive plays.

Prediction Summary

While Mississippi State enjoys home-field advantage and a historically solid start to games, there are enough reasons to believe that Ole Miss’ overall offensive firepower and recent success at Davis Wade Stadium give them the edge. The trends suggest a closely contested game with possibly lower scoring totals, especially given the under trend in recent November matchups.

Ole Miss’ ability to perform as a road underdog combined with Mississippi State’s extended conference home losing streak tilts the scales slightly in favor of the Rebels. Meanwhile, bets on the under in total points appear smart considering historical and recent scoring trends.

Final Prediction: Ole Miss Rebels to win a tight game, likely low scoring, with the under the total points line as the favorable betting angle.