Old Dominion vs Marshall prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
On October 11, 2025, the Old Dominion Monarchs (4-1) visit the Marshall Thundering Herd (2-3) in what shapes up to be a compelling Conference USA showdown. Old Dominion enters this game riding a four-game winning streak and boasts strong offensive and defensive metrics, while Marshall is looking to rebound after some disappointing performances and recent defensive struggles.
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Key Trends and Team Form
- Old Dominion Momentum: The Monarchs have been dominant lately, winning four straight games and maintaining an impressive 130+ passer rating stretch from QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson over his last three contests.
- Marshall Struggles and Resilience: Despite Marshall’s 2-3 record, they have covered the spread as underdogs in their previous six games. However, they have been vulnerable defensively, particularly in the third quarter, surrendering nearly 8 points per game to opponents during this pivotal period.
- Conference Series History: Marshall holds a psychological edge, winning each of the last seven meetings against Old Dominion. Yet, when looking at betting trends, the road team has consistently covered the spread in the six most recent encounters between these two squads.
- Fourth Down Efficiency: Old Dominion excels on critical fourth downs, boasting a perfect 100% conversion rate this season, ranking at the very top in FBS. Marshall’s defense, meanwhile, ranks poorly against fourth down attempts by opponents.
- Offensive Playmakers: Old Dominion’s running back Trequan Jones is a major threat with a stellar 9.4 yards per carry, leading qualified players nationally. This explosive ground game complements the Monarchs’ efficient passing attack.
- Scoring Environment: Both teams have been part of high-scoring affairs recently, with the majority of their last few games going over the total points line of around 56.5. Expect an open game with plenty of scoring opportunities.
Analytical Breakdown
Old Dominion’s balanced, efficient offense and stout situational execution contrast starkly with Marshall’s defensive inconsistencies and struggles against fourth down conversions. While the Thundering Herd have home-field advantage and recent dominance in their head-to-head matchups, their inconsistency in October and defensive issues in key moments raise concerns.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson’s quarterback mastery combined with Trequan Jones’ explosive rushing ability creates a dynamic offense that should exploit Marshall’s defensive weaknesses. In addition, Old Dominion’s flawless conversion rate on fourth downs suggests sustained drives and scoring opportunities will be sustained.
Marshall’s best chance lies in slowing down Old Dominion’s offense and producing turnovers, but based on recent trends and statistical disparities, the Monarchs have the upper hand to control the game’s tempo and score efficiently.
Prediction Summary
Considering recent form, statistical matchups, and historical trends, Old Dominion is poised to extend their winning streak and cover the sizable 14.5-point spread on the road.
Expect a game with multiple scoring bursts, likely pushing the total points over 56.5, driven by strong offensive performances on both sides.
Final Prediction: Old Dominion Monarchs -14.5, Over 56.5 total points.
