Old Dominion vs Indiana prediction and analysis

Game Overview

On August 30, 2025, the Old Dominion Monarchs visit the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington for their season opener. Indiana comes in as a heavy -22.5 favorite with an over/under set at 54.5 points. Both programs are facing roster changes but bring different momentum and expectations into this matchup.

Old Dominion Monarchs: Outlook and Key Factors

Last season, Old Dominion finished 5-7 overall and 4-4 in Sun Belt Conference play, surpassing modest preseason expectations by finishing near the middle of the East Division standings. Coach Ricky Rahne enters his sixth year with some stability in his staff, which should provide continuity.

However, ODU faces significant offensive uncertainty following the offseason loss of nearly all top receivers. The offensive line has experienced a rebuild with only solid tackles remaining intact, making it a challenge for their new skill players to immediately produce at a high level. Defensively, their strength lies in a strong pass rush and a talented linebacker unit led by Jason Henderson. The defense is expected to keep the team competitive.

Despite these positives, Old Dominion’s recent trend in road openers hasn’t been favorable, losing seven of their last eight. Historically, the road team has covered the spread in ODU’s last three games, offering a silver lining for bettors looking at the Monarchs as underdogs.

Indiana Hoosiers: Outlook and Key Factors

Indiana had a breakthrough 11-2 season in 2024, including an 8-1 mark in Big Ten play and their first College Football Playoff appearance. Coach Curt Cignetti returns for his second year, bringing back most of his key coordinators, which should aid in sustaining the program’s momentum.

Nonetheless, Indiana faces some offseason personnel losses, especially at quarterback with Kurtis Rourke entering the NFL Draft and backup Tayven Jackson transferring out. Additional key departures affected the wide receiver and running back groups, potentially impacting offensive depth and explosiveness early in the season.

Indiana has been dominant at home, winning each of their last eight contests at Memorial Stadium. They also boast a strong record covering the spread as favorites, having done so in nine of their last ten games. However, they have struggled to cover big spreads in August games against unranked opponents recently, including failing to cover in their last three such games.

Betting Trends and Historical Notes

• Indiana has won eight straight at home and covered as a favorite nine of the last ten games.
• Old Dominion has struggled on the road in season openers, losing seven of eight.
• The underdog has been successful recently for ODU, winning five of its last seven.
• Each of Indiana’s last four openers have gone under the point total; in contrast, four of Old Dominion’s last five games have gone over.
• Road teams have covered in Old Dominion’s last three games, potentially suggesting a cover is possible despite an expected loss.

Prediction Summary

This contest poses a clear mismatch on paper given Indiana’s recent national success and home dominance versus Old Dominion’s rebuilding offense and inconsistent road record. However, Old Dominion’s defensive strength and experienced coaching staff could keep them within striking distance, particularly against a Hoosiers squad dealing with key departures at skill positions.

While Indiana should win comfortably given the talent and homefield edge, the 22.5-point spread might be too steep considering the uncertainties on Indiana’s offense early in the season and the Monarchs’ capability to disrupt with defense. Expect a more controlled scoring game possibly trending under the total points line.

Old Dominion will likely fall short of outright victory but has a reasonable chance to keep the game closer than the betting line suggests, making them an attractive option against the spread. Bettors might approach this cautiously, favoring a play on the under or scouting live game flow for value.

Final Prediction

Indiana wins 31-13, but Old Dominion covers the +22.5 spread.