New Mexico vs San José State prediction and analysis
Matchup Overview
The New Mexico Lobos (3-1) face off against the San José State Spartans (1-3) on October 3, 2025, at 10:00 PM EDT. This Mountain West Conference contest pits a Lobos team on a three-game winning streak against a Spartans squad looking to bounce back after recent struggles. San José State enters as a slight 2.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 58.5 points.
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Key Factors and Trends
- Home and Away Dynamics: San José State boasts a strong October home record with nine straight wins against non-AP-ranked teams at home in this month. Conversely, New Mexico has historically struggled on the road within the conference, losing 23 of their last 27 away games against Mountain West opponents.
- Against The Spread (ATS) Insights: The Spartans have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against New Mexico teams, while New Mexico has a poor ATS record in October underdog roles, failing to cover in nine of their last 11 games as the underdog during this month. However, New Mexico has successfully covered the spread in seven of their last eight underdog appearances overall and has won its last three games as an underdog in California.
- First Half and Quarter Trends: San José State has dominated the first quarter in three of its last four conference games. New Mexico struggles early on the road in conference contests, losing the first half in nine of their last ten away MW games.
- Offensive and Defensive Performance: Danny Scudero, leading the Mountain West in receiving yards with 520, provides a vital offensive weapon for New Mexico. Jaxton Eck stands out defensively, topping the conference with one forced fumble this season.
- San José State ranks near the bottom nationally in fourth-down conversion defense (T133rd) and red zone defense (T130th), which may offer offensive opportunities to New Mexico.
- New Mexico ranks highly in fourth-quarter points per game (5th nationally) but is weak in defending fourth-down conversions (6th best against them is allowed), indicating both teams might exploit late-game scenarios.
- Scoring and Game Pace: Both teams have recent tendencies to see games go under the total points line, with nine of New Mexico’s last ten games and five of San José State’s last six October games staying under.
Prediction Summary
Given the trends, New Mexico’s recent success as an underdog in California, and San José State’s solid October home performance but struggling conference form, this game should be a tightly contested battle. New Mexico’s potent receiving corps led by Scudero and their knack for fourth-quarter scoring, combined with San José State’s vulnerability in crucial defensive situations, suggests the Lobos have a real shot at covering the small spread, if not pulling off the upset outright.
Expect a competitive game, potentially lower-scoring than the total line suggests, with both teams fighting for momentum. The Lobos’ resilience on the road, especially as underdogs, and the Spartans’ recent inability to cover conference spreads tip the scales slightly in New Mexico’s favor.
Final Prediction
New Mexico Lobos +2.5, Under 58.5
